Upside case
Bull case
$1208+6772.5%
HMY would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
10
analysts
1 bullish · 2 bearish · 10 covering HMY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1208
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
10
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
HMY price targets
Three scenarios for where HMY stock could go
Current
~$18
Confidence
38 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $18
Base
$830
Bull
$1208
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$830+4620.8%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
HMY · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldJune year-end
Harmony Gold is a gold mining company that explores for, extracts, and processes gold primarily in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. It generates revenue almost entirely from gold sales — with a small portion from silver and uranium by-products — through its portfolio of underground and open-pit mines. The company's key advantage is its extensive, long-life ore reserves in the prolific Witwatersrand Basin — one of the world's richest goldfields — supplemented by growth projects in Papua New Guinea.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$150.3B
Net Income TTM
$26.3B
Net Margin
17.5%
HMY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+410.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q4 2024
EPS
$6.29/—
Revenue
$18.6B/—
Q1 2025
EPS
$0.66/—
Revenue
$2.0B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.58/$0.57
Revenue
$2.1B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.95
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $6.29/— | — | $18.6B/— | — |
| Q1 2025 | $0.66/— | — | $2.0B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $0.58/$0.57 | +2.3% | $2.1B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.95 | -9.0% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$169.9B
+13.0% YoY
FY2
$205.4B
+20.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$51.17
+22.8% YoY
FY2
$65.93
+28.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$20.4B
FCF Margin: 13.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HMY beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HMY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $64.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
commodities
96.1%
+26.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
commodities is the largest disclosed segment at 96.1% of FY 2024 revenue, up 26.8% YoY.
HMY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $400 — implies +2459.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2459.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HMY
12.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
50% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
HMY
12.6x
vs
Basic Materials
23.4x
46% discount
vs HMY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.6x
vs
5Y Average
0.6x
+2113% premium
Forward PE
0.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-98%
Basic Materials
15.3x
-98%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
-50%
Basic Materials
23.4x
-46%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+2113%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Basic Materials
1.19x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-56%
Basic Materials
11.2x
-40%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+1202%
Price/FCF
16.7x
S&P 500
21.4x
-22%
Basic Materials
28.0x
-41%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+1287%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+21%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+3226%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
S&P 500
1.90%
-40%
Basic Materials
1.39%
-18%
5Y Avg
5.22%
-78%
| Metric | HMY | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg HMY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.4x | 19.1x-98% | 15.3x-98% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.6x | 25.1x-50% | 23.4x-46% | 0.6x+2113% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 1.19x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7x | 15.3x-56% | 11.2x-40% | 0.5x+1202% |
| Price/FCF | 16.7x | 21.4x-22% | 28.0x-41% | 1.2x+1287% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-21% | 2.0x+21% | 0.1x+3226% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% | 1.90% | 1.39% | 5.22% |
HMY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHMY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HMY generates $20.4B in free cash flow at a 13.6% margin — 40.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$150.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+55.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
30.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$41.67
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$20.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
40.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
32.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$10.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
56.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.27
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
14.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
629M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHMY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
The price of gold is a primary driver of HMY's stock performance, with fluctuations significantly impacting operating margins. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainty can lead to volatility in gold prices, directly affecting profitability.
High Risk
Debt Management
HMY has a substantial level of indebtedness, raising concerns about the company's ability to service this debt. Any deterioration in cash flow or profitability could exacerbate this risk, potentially leading to financial distress.
High Risk
Production Shortfalls and Cost Increases
HMY has faced production shortfalls due to issues like cyanide shortages and mill motor failures, resulting in significant increases in all-in sustaining costs (AISC). These operational challenges can severely impact profitability and investor confidence.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Uncertainties
Changes in mining regulations and environmental policies can impact HMY's operations and profitability. The general regulatory environment poses risks that could affect the company's ability to operate efficiently.
Medium
Operational Efficiency
The company's ability to manage operational efficiency, including energy management and site safety, directly impacts production costs and output reliability. Any inefficiencies could lead to increased costs and reduced profitability.
Lower
Market Sentiment and Investor Concerns
Negative market reactions can arise from production shortfalls, rising costs, or conservative guidance, even amidst strong revenue growth. Elevated short interest may create a volatile trading environment, impacting stock performance.
Lower
Geographic Risks
Harmony Gold operates in regions like South Africa and Papua New Guinea, which carry inherent risks related to exploration and mining activities. These geographic factors can introduce additional operational challenges.
Lower
Copper Price Exposure
As Harmony Gold diversifies into a gold-copper portfolio, it introduces exposure to copper price fluctuations. This diversification strategy may mitigate some risks but also adds complexity to the company's financial profile.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HMY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Significant Undervaluation Potential
HMY is trading significantly below its estimated fair value, with some analyses suggesting it's undervalued by as much as 68%. The company's earnings are forecast to grow substantially, with estimates of 34.24% per year, following a historical growth rate of 45% annually over the past five years.
Strong Revenue and EPS Growth
Harmony Gold has demonstrated strong past growth, with revenue increasing by 20.39% and earnings per share (EPS) jumping by 66.97% in the last year. This robust performance indicates a solid operational foundation and potential for continued growth.
High Returns on Capital
The company exhibits high returns on capital, with Return on Equity (ROE) at 22.97% and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) at 20.62%, outperforming a significant majority of its peers. This strong capital efficiency suggests effective management and profitability.
Robust Financial Health
Harmony Gold maintains a very low Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.04 and a strong Debt-to-Free Cash Flow ratio of 0.18 to 0.22, indicating a low risk of financial trouble. The Altman-Z score is also robust, suggesting a very low short-term risk of financial distress.
Strategic Diversification and Dividend Policy
Harmony Gold is geographically diversified with assets in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia, and is strategically investing in copper to protect cash flows. The company has revised its dividend policy to potentially reward shareholders with up to 50% of net free cash, offering a meaningful dividend yield of 3.04%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HMY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$17.58
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.58
+39.7% from the low
52-Week High
$26.06
-32.5% from the high
1 Month
+10.98%
3 Month
-18.23%
YTD
-10.2%
1 Year
+9.3%
3Y CAGR
+49.3%
5Y CAGR
+27.7%
10Y CAGR
+18.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HMY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.4x
vs 7.6x median
-95% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.0%
vs +13.2% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
17.5%
vs 27.6% median
-36% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HMY HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | $11.0B | 0.4x | +13.0% | 17.5% | Hold | — |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $40.2B | 7.6x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +21.2% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $50.6B | 9.2x | +26.5% | 27.6% | Buy | +32.8% |
DRD DRD DRDGOLD Limited | $2.5B | 0.6x | +13.1% | 30.2% | Buy | +62.8% |
SBS SBSW Sibanye Stillwater Limited | $9.3B | 0.2x | -2.2% | -5.2% | Hold | +38.5% |
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $12.1B | 19.1x | +30.3% | 35.6% | Hold | +31.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HMY Dividend and Capital Return
HMY returns 1.1% total yield, led by a 1.14% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.14%
Payout Ratio
14.3%
How HMY Splits Its Return
Div 1.14%
Dividend 1.14%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.27
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
69.8%
5Y Div CAGR
2.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
629M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.19 | +46.5% | 0.0% | 23.4% |
| 2024 | $0.13 | +222.8% | 0.0% | 24.9% |
| 2023 | $0.04 | +3.5% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| 2022 | $0.04 | -57.4% | 0.0% | 21.6% |
FAQ
6 questionsHMY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 10 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.
02Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) stock overvalued in 2026?
HMY trades at 0.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HMY in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — The price of gold is a primary driver of HMY's stock performance, with fluctuations significantly impacting operating margins. (2) Debt Management — HMY has a substantial level of indebtedness, raising concerns about the company's ability to service this debt. (3) Production Shortfalls and Cost Increases — HMY has faced production shortfalls due to issues like cyanide shortages and mill motor failures, resulting in significant increases in all-in sustaining costs (AISC). Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HMY will report consensus revenue of $169.9B (+13.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $51.17 (+22.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $205.4B in revenue.
05When does Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HMY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited generate?
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) generated $20.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.6%. HMY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).