Upside case
Bull case
$202+129.4%
NGG would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
National Grid plc (NGG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 20 covering NGG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$86
-2.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$69 – $202
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $87.3B
NGG price targets
Three scenarios for where NGG stock could go
Current
~$88
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $88
Bear
$69
Base
$91
Bull
$202
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$91+3.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NGG — at roughly 23x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$69-21.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push NGG down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
National Grid plc
NGG · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricMarch year-end
National Grid is a regulated utility that operates electricity and gas transmission and distribution networks in the UK and northeastern United States. It earns revenue through regulated asset returns — collecting fees from customers for using its infrastructure — with its UK transmission business contributing roughly 40% of operating profit and its US operations about 35%. The company's primary moat comes from its natural monopoly position as an owner of critical energy infrastructure, protected by high regulatory barriers to entry and long-term, stable rate-of-return frameworks.
Market Cap
$87.3B
Revenue TTM
$36.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.7B
Net Margin
12.7%
NGG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-70.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2024
Q4 2024
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2024
EPS
$0.39/$2.64
Revenue
$14.3B/$14.1B
Q4 2024
EPS
$0.19/$1.77
Revenue
$10.4B/$11.7B
Q2 2025
EPS
$0.59/$2.82
Revenue
$13.4B/$16.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.84/$1.85
Revenue
$9.5B/$11.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | $0.39/$2.64 | -85.1% | $14.3B/$14.1B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.19/$1.77 | -89.5% | $10.4B/$11.7B | -10.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.59/$2.82 | -79.0% | $13.4B/$16.3B | -17.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.84/$1.85 | -54.8% | $9.5B/$11.2B | -15.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.5B
-9.0% YoY
FY2
$33.1B
-1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.35
-8.1% YoY
FY2
$4.14
-4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$4.8B
FCF Margin: -13.1%
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.24
Expected Revenue
$16.4B
NGG beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NGG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Distribution
75.3%
+17.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
63.5%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Distribution is the largest disclosed segment at 75.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 17.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 63.5%, up 8.2% YoY.
NGG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $79 — implies -10.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NGG
21.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
13% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
NGG
21.9x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+11% premium
vs NGG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.9x
vs
5Y Average
20.6x
+7% premium
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Utilities
17.2x
+29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-13%
Utilities
19.7x
+11%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+7%
PEG Ratio
2.11x
S&P 500
1.75x
+21%
Utilities
1.73x
+22%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+2%
Utilities
11.5x
+35%
5Y Avg
16.3x
-5%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
87.2x
—
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+12%
Utilities
2.2x
+60%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+19%
Dividend Yield
2.41%
S&P 500
1.88%
+28%
Utilities
3.07%
-22%
5Y Avg
2.73%
-12%
| Metric | NGG | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg NGG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 19.1x+16% | 17.2x+29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.9x | 25.2x-13% | 19.7x+11% | 20.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.11x | 1.75x+21% | 1.73x+22% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.6x | 15.3x | 11.5x+35% | 16.3x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | 87.2x |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+12% | 2.2x+60% | 2.9x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.41% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 2.73% |
NGG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNGG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NGG earns 24.3% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.4% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$36.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.73
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
24.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$46.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (4.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$7M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.56
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
52.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
982M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageNGG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Rate of Return
Ofgem sets price controls for NGG’s regulated assets; future determinations such as RIIO-ET3 could lower the allowable rate of return, directly reducing profitability.
High Risk
Capital Expenditure Program
NGG’s Great Grid Upgrade requires substantial investment over the next decade; delays, supply‑chain disruptions, or labor shortages could inflate costs and strain cash flow.
Medium
Regulatory Compliance Costs
Extensive federal, state, and local environmental regulations increase compliance expenses, eroding profit margins and potentially requiring higher capital allocation.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Intense competition from better‑capitalized, geographically broader peers could erode NGG’s market share and compress earnings.
Medium
Contractual Revenue Risk
KeySpan’s revenue is heavily tied to agreements with the Long Island Power Authority; a non‑renewal could materially reduce NGG’s income stream.
Lower
Weather‑Dependent Operations
Seasonal demand and weather variability can cause significant swings in operating results, affecting cash flow and financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NGG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Market Performance & Investor Confidence
National Grid’s share price sits near its 52‑week high, reflecting robust market sentiment. Over the past year the stock has surged 44.37%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 15.7% gain during the same period.
Diversified Revenue Streams
The company operates electricity and gas distribution in the UK and the US, serving over 20 million people through its New York and Massachusetts networks. It also owns the UK’s largest electricity distribution network and a high‑voltage transmission network in England and Wales, providing stable, multi‑segment revenue.
Infrastructure Investment & Energy Transition
National Grid is committing significant capital to upgrade and expand its networks, including Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment (ASTI) projects in the UK and advanced metering deployments in the US. These investments aim to enhance reliability, resilience and support the transition to cleaner energy sources, aligning with state climate goals.
Momentum & Technical Signals
The stock has delivered positive price changes over the past quarter and year, outperforming the broader market. Technical indicators show a bullish trend with multiple buy signals, reinforcing its momentum profile.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NGG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.85
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.08
+31.0% from the low
52-Week High
$94.64
-7.2% from the high
1 Month
+0.91%
3 Month
-0.24%
YTD
+11.6%
1 Year
+21.5%
3Y CAGR
+6.4%
5Y CAGR
+6.2%
10Y CAGR
+1.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NGG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 18.7x median
+18% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.0%
vs +4.5% median
-300% below peer median
Net Margin
12.7%
vs 13.1% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NGG NGG National Grid plc | $87.3B | 22.1x | -9.0% | 12.7% | Buy | -2.7% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $105.4B | 20.4x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +6.5% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $97.7B | 18.7x | +2.4% | 15.4% | Hold | +7.9% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.1B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 11.2% | Hold | +9.2% |
PPL PPL PPL Corporation | $27.5B | 18.9x | +6.8% | 13.1% | Buy | +12.7% |
ED ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. | $25.2B | 17.5x | +6.8% | 12.3% | Hold | +1.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NGG Dividend and Capital Return
NGG returns 2.4% total yield, led by a 2.41% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.41%
Payout Ratio
52.7%
How NGG Splits Its Return
Div 2.41%
Dividend 2.41%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.56
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.3%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$7M
Estimated Shares Retired
79.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
982M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $3.12 | -55.4% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $6.99 | +99.4% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $3.51 | +13.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 2022 | $3.09 | -9.7% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2021 | $3.43 | +9.1% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsNGG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is National Grid plc (NGG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
National Grid plc (NGG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $86, implying -2.7% from the current price of $88. The bear case scenario is $69 and the bull case is $202.
02What is the NGG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NGG is $86 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $86 (-2.7% from today), and the low-end target is $86 (-2.7%). The base case model target is $91.
03Is National Grid plc (NGG) stock overvalued in 2026?
NGG trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for National Grid plc (NGG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NGG in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Rate of Return — Ofgem sets price controls for NGG’s regulated assets; future determinations such as RIIO-ET3 could lower the allowable rate of return, directly reducing profitability. (2) Capital Expenditure Program — NGG’s Great Grid Upgrade requires substantial investment over the next decade; delays, supply‑chain disruptions, or labor shortages could inflate costs and strain cash flow. (3) Regulatory Compliance Costs — Extensive federal, state, and local environmental regulations increase compliance expenses, eroding profit margins and potentially requiring higher capital allocation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is National Grid plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NGG will report consensus revenue of $33.5B (-9.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.35 (-8.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.1B in revenue.
06When does National Grid plc (NGG) report its next earnings?
National Grid plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $3.24 and revenue of $16.4B. Over recent quarters, NGG has beaten EPS estimates 8% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does National Grid plc generate?
National Grid plc (NGG) had a free cash outflow of $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.1%. NGG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($7M TTM).