Upside case
Bull case
$24+55.9%
NWG would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
NatWest Group plc (NWG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
3 bullish · 1 bearish · 6 covering NWG
Strong Buy
1
Buy
2
Hold
2
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
— – $24
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.1B
NWG price targets
Three scenarios for where NWG stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Base
$13
Bull
$24
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13-14.6%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
NatWest Group plc
NWG · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
NatWest Group is a major UK-based banking group providing retail, commercial, and institutional banking services across the United Kingdom and internationally. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (~60% of total income) and fee-based income from banking services, wealth management, and capital markets operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its entrenched position as one of the UK's largest retail banks with extensive branch networks, established commercial relationships, and government ownership providing stability.
Market Cap
$31.1B
Net Income TTM
$5.8B
NWG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.37
Revenue
$4.0B/$5.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.42
Revenue
$4.3B/$5.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.38
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.48/$0.44
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.37 | +12.3% | $4.0B/$5.5B | -26.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.53/$0.42 | +26.9% | $4.3B/$5.6B | -22.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.38 | +21.1% | $5.9B/$5.7B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48/$0.44 | +9.1% | $5.9B/$5.8B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.6B
-3.0% YoY
FY2
$29.6B
+3.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.92
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$3.13
+7.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NWG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NWG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
73.6%
+28.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Europe is the largest reported region at 73.6%, up 28.7% YoY.
NWG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $14 — implies -11.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NWG
4.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
83% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
NWG
4.3x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
68% discount
vs NWG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
4.3x
vs
5Y Average
5.0x
15% discount
Forward PE
10.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-44%
Financial Services
10.5x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
4.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-83%
Financial Services
13.4x
-68%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-15%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-93%
Financial Services
11.4x
-91%
5Y Avg
2.5x
-58%
Price/FCF
3.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-81%
Financial Services
10.6x
-63%
5Y Avg
12.6x
-69%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Financial Services
2.3x
-66%
5Y Avg
1.0x
-22%
Dividend Yield
10.18%
S&P 500
1.88%
+442%
Financial Services
2.68%
+279%
5Y Avg
10.76%
-5%
| Metric | NWG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg NWG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.7x | 19.1x-44% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 4.3x | 25.2x-83% | 13.4x-68% | 5.0x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1x | 15.3x-93% | 11.4x-91% | 2.5x-58% |
| Price/FCF | 3.9x | 21.3x-81% | 10.6x-63% | 12.6x-69% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 2.3x-66% | 1.0x-22% |
| Dividend Yield | 10.18% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 10.76% |
NWG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNWG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
NWG generates 13.8% ROE and 0.8% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.88
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
13.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$85.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$13.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
13.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
21.4%
Dividend
10.2%
Buyback
11.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.17
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
40.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageNWG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Quality & Accruals
NWG’s high PEG ratio of 3.65 and elevated accruals suggest earnings may overstate cash generation. The company’s value grade is labeled “Expensive,” indicating that the current price may have outpaced expected earnings growth. These factors raise the risk that reported earnings could be misleading, potentially leading to valuation corrections.
High Risk
Cash Flow Volatility & Negative FCF
Free cash flow conversion is alarmingly low, with a negative conversion of -297% in one assessment, and the firm has posted negative FCF in recent years. This inconsistency signals that earnings may not translate into cash, increasing balance sheet sensitivity. Investors face the risk of liquidity shortfalls or the need for additional debt financing.
Medium
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Headwinds
UK bank stocks have suffered broader sell‑offs driven by Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, dampening risk appetite. These sector‑wide pressures have amplified downward price movements for NWG, potentially eroding shareholder value.
Medium
Debt Growth & Interest Coverage
NWG’s debt has increased significantly over the last three years, and its interest coverage is adequate but not comfortable. Rising leverage could constrain future investment and elevate default risk if earnings decline.
Lower
Momentum & Technical Uncertainty
Momentum has been fading, with recent underperformance relative to long‑term trends. Technical indicators are mixed—some signal a “Buy” while others suggest a “Sell”—creating uncertainty about short‑term price direction.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment Volatility
Ratings have fluctuated between “Moderate Buy” and “Hold” within the past month, reflecting mixed analyst sentiment. Such volatility can influence investor perception and trading activity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NWG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Potential Upside Over 56%
Analysts have raised price targets for NWG, signaling a potential upside of more than 56%. This reflects strong market confidence and a favorable outlook for the stock.
Robust Financial Performance & Growth
NWG has shown solid return on equity and positive net margins, with recent results indicating strong revenue and earnings growth. Management is guiding for continued growth in net interest income, underscoring the company’s solid financial health.
Dividend Growth Leader in Top 25%
NWG is a leading dividend payer, offering a competitive yield that places it in the top 25% of dividend-paying stocks. The company has a history of dividend growth and maintains a sustainable payout ratio.
Evelyn Partners Acquisition Boosts AUM
The recent acquisition of Evelyn Partners is expected to more than double NatWest’s assets under management and diversify its revenue streams, providing a significant catalyst for future growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NWG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$15.61
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.76
+22.3% from the low
52-Week High
$19.36
-19.4% from the high
1 Month
+1.50%
3 Month
-13.80%
YTD
-12.4%
1 Year
+21.4%
3Y CAGR
+33.0%
5Y CAGR
+21.4%
10Y CAGR
+8.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NWG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.7x
vs 11.2x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-3.0%
vs -13.8% median
+78% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NWG NWG NatWest Group plc | $31.1B | 10.7x | -3.0% | — | Buy | — |
HSB HSBC HSBC Holdings plc | $314.1B | 11.0x | -4.9% | — | Hold | -43.1% |
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $82.4B | 11.2x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +83.2% |
LYG LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc | $79.6B | 13.0x | +11.2% | — | Buy | -49.4% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $86.2B | 12.5x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -24.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NWG Dividend and Capital Return
NWG returns 22.5% annually — 10.72% through dividends and 11.8% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
22.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
11.8%
Dividend Yield
10.72%
Payout Ratio
40.7%
How NWG Splits Its Return
Div 10.72%
Buyback 11.8%
Dividend 10.72%Buybacks 11.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.17
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.9%
5Y Div CAGR
23.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
164M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.0B
At 8.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.64 | +44.6% | 7.2% | 13.9% |
| 2024 | $0.44 | -15.2% | 12.5% | 20.9% |
| 2023 | $0.52 | -27.7% | 18.6% | 31.7% |
| 2022 | $0.72 | +298.0% | 12.8% | 32.8% |
FAQ
6 questionsNWG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is NatWest Group plc (NWG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
NatWest Group plc (NWG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.
02Is NatWest Group plc (NWG) stock overvalued in 2026?
NWG trades at 10.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for NatWest Group plc (NWG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NWG in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Quality & Accruals — NWG’s high PEG ratio of 3. (2) Cash Flow Volatility & Negative FCF — Free cash flow conversion is alarmingly low, with a negative conversion of -297% in one assessment, and the firm has posted negative FCF in recent years. (3) Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Headwinds — UK bank stocks have suffered broader sell‑offs driven by Middle East tensions and rising oil prices, dampening risk appetite. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is NatWest Group plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NWG will report consensus revenue of $28.6B (-3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.92 (+1.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.6B in revenue.
05When does NatWest Group plc (NWG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NWG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does NatWest Group plc generate?
NatWest Group plc (NWG) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. NWG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (10.7% yield) and share repurchases ($2.6B TTM).