Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$37.54
Price Target
$29.50
Target Range
$27.00 — $32.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E17.4x
Trailing P/E18.9x
Forward PEG1.29
Implied Growth+5.1%
Median Target$29.50
Analyst Spread16.9%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$27
-28.1%
Consensus
$30
-21.4%
Bull Case
$32
-14.8%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 52/100
Bear$33
Base$41
Bull$137
STEL Price Target Analysis
Updated May 8, 2026As of May 8, 2026, Stellar Bancorp, Inc. (STEL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $29.50, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $37.54, this represents a potential downside of -21.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.91B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $27.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a 17% spread in expectations. The median target of $29.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, STEL trades at a trailing P/E of 18.9x and forward P/E of 17.4x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.29 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +5.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $41.12, with bear and bull scenarios of $33.35 and $137.11 respectively. Model confidence stands at 52/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+16.0%
Avg Forward P/E11.4x
Peers with Coverage9 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TCBKTriCo Bancshares | $1.6B | $50.82 | $57.33 | +12.8% | Buy | 12.0x | 12 |
 IBOCInternational Bancshares Corporation | $4.6B | $73.26 | $85.00 | +16.0% | Buy | 10.9x | 1 |
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | $32.39 | $39.25 | +21.2% | Hold | 15.9x | 15 |
 BOKFBOK Financial Corporation | $10.3B | $133.45 | $131.57 | -1.4% | Hold | 13.0x | 21 |
 SBSISouthside Bancshares, Inc. | $1.0B | $33.65 | $35.00 | +4.0% | Hold | 10.0x | 8 |
 CULPCulp, Inc. | $46M | $3.60 | — | — | — | — | — |
 CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. | $8.7B | $138.56 | $154.88 | +11.8% | Hold | 13.3x | 33 |
 TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc. | $4.4B | $100.56 | $106.17 | +5.6% | Hold | 13.2x | 39 |
 FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $24.5B | $47.25 | $67.38 | +42.6% | Buy | 7.5x | 37 |
 FISVFiserv, Inc. | $30.4B | $56.81 | $74.64 | +31.4% | Buy | 7.0x | 60 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonSTEL — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying STEL stock.
What is the STEL stock price target for 2026?
STEL's consensus price target is $29.5, -21.4% below the current price of $37.54. The 4 analysts tracking STEL see downside risk at present valuations.
Is STEL a buy, sell, or hold?
STEL has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 2 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $29.5 implies -21.4% downside from current levels.
Is STEL stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 17.3796x, STEL trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $29.5 implies -21.4% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can STEL stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $32 for STEL, while the most conservative target is $27. The consensus of $29.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $137 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover STEL stock?
STEL is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the STEL stock forecast?
The 12-month STEL stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $29.5, with estimates ranging from $27 (bear case) to $32 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $41, with bear/bull scenarios of $33/$137.
What is STEL's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates STEL's fair value at $41 (base case), with a bear case of $33 and bull case of $137. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 52/100.
What is STEL's forward P/E ratio?
STEL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 18.9x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy STEL stock?
Analysts are cautious on STEL, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $29.5 (-21.4% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do STEL price targets vary so much?
STEL analyst price targets range from $27 to $32, a 17% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $29.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $33-$137 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.