Upside case
Bull case
$101+42.5%
TRU would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TransUnion (TRU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 26 covering TRU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$95
+34.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$13 – $101
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.6B
TRU price targets
Three scenarios for where TRU stock could go
Current
~$71
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $71
Bear
$13
Base
$131
Bull
$101
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$131+85.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$13-81.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push TRU down roughly 81% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TransUnion
TRU · NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesDecember year-end
TransUnion is a global information and insights company that provides credit reporting, risk assessment, and identity verification services. It generates revenue primarily through subscription-based data services to businesses—roughly 70% from its U.S. Markets segment and 30% from International operations—alongside direct-to-consumer offerings for credit monitoring. Its competitive moat lies in its massive proprietary database of consumer credit information and the regulatory barriers to entry in the credit reporting industry.
Market Cap
$13.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.7B
Net Income TTM
$705M
Net Margin
14.9%
TRU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.08/$0.99
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.10/$1.04
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.07/$1.03
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.18/$1.11
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.08/$0.99 | +9.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.10/$1.04 | +5.8% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.07/$1.03 | +3.9% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.18/$1.11 | +6.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.1B
+8.8% YoY
FY2
$5.6B
+9.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.17
+15.1% YoY
FY2
$4.31
+3.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$697M
FCF Margin: 14.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TRU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TRU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
U.S. Markets
78.0%
+10.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U.S. Markets
78.0%
+10.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
U.S. Markets is the largest disclosed segment at 78.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.5% YoY.
U.S. Markets is the largest reported region at 78.0%, up 10.5% YoY.
TRU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $107 — implies +52.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
52.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TRU
30.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+21% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TRU
30.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+18% premium
vs TRU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.5x
vs
5Y Average
39.5x
23% discount
Forward PE
14.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-22%
Industrials
20.8x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+21%
Industrials
25.9x
+18%
5Y Avg
39.5x
-23%
PEG Ratio
5.72x
S&P 500
1.75x
+228%
Industrials
1.59x
+261%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-18%
Industrials
13.9x
-10%
5Y Avg
20.5x
-39%
Price/FCF
20.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-3%
Industrials
20.6x
-0%
5Y Avg
34.9x
-41%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Industrials
1.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
4.4x
-33%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
S&P 500
1.88%
-65%
Industrials
1.24%
-47%
5Y Avg
0.52%
+24%
| Metric | TRU | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TRU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.8x | 19.1x-22% | 20.8x-29% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.5x | 25.2x+21% | 25.9x+18% | 39.5x-23% |
| PEG Ratio | 5.72x | 1.75x+228% | 1.59x+261% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5x | 15.3x-18% | 13.9x | 20.5x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 20.6x | 21.3x | 20.6x | 34.9x-41% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+88% | 4.4x-33% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.52% |
TRU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTRU Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TRU generates $697M in free cash flow at a 14.7% margin — returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$697M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$854M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$338M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
19.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
193M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTRU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Increased Competition
TransUnion faces significant competition in the credit data and analytics market from rivals like Equifax and Experian, which could pressure market share and pricing power.
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Potential changes in regulations within the financial and data industries pose a risk to TransUnion's business model, potentially impacting revenue and operational practices.
High Risk
Debt Burden
TransUnion's high debt burden, resulting from strategic acquisitions, could constrain its valuation and financial flexibility if not managed effectively.
Medium
International Economic Downturns
With approximately 20-25% of its revenue generated internationally, economic slowdowns or slower recoveries in countries like India could adversely affect TransUnion's growth.
Medium
Technological Setbacks
The company's reliance on AI and other technological innovations could be offset by costly tech or cyber setbacks, potentially pressuring margins and investor confidence.
Lower
Data Privacy Rules
TransUnion must effectively manage tighter data privacy regulations to maintain its growth trajectory, as non-compliance could lead to fines and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TRU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Growth and Innovation
TransUnion is experiencing strong growth, particularly in its Marketing Solutions and Fraud divisions. The completion of its technology transformation is expected to drive accelerated innovation and product development in 2026.
Financial Performance
The company recently reported a 'beat-and-raise' quarter, exceeding Q1 estimates with $1.25 billion in revenue and raising its full-year guidance. Revenue growth has been robust, with a 13.0% year-over-year increase and a 10.0% net margin.
Beneficiary of Economic Trends
TransUnion is seen as a primary beneficiary of a stabilizing or recovering credit environment, with strong demand from lenders for its data and analytics. The company's CEO has framed recent performance as the start of a period of 'innovation-led and scalable growth, increasing cash generation, and accretive capital deployment.'
Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating for TRU stock. The company's raised outlook and strong free cash flow are seen as pathways for debt prepayment and increased capital return to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TRU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$70.70
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$65.23
+8.4% from the low
52-Week High
$99.39
-28.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.51%
3 Month
-3.78%
YTD
-15.2%
1 Year
-16.1%
3Y CAGR
+2.7%
5Y CAGR
-7.6%
10Y CAGR
+8.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TRU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.8x
vs 22.4x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.8%
vs +7.8% median
+13% above peer median
Net Margin
14.9%
vs 29.3% median
-49% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRU TRU TransUnion | $13.6B | 14.8x | +8.8% | 14.9% | Buy | +34.2% |
EFX EFX Equifax Inc. | $20.9B | 20.1x | +7.3% | 11.1% | Buy | +31.4% |
FIC FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $24.7B | 25.0x | +13.2% | 33.7% | Buy | +54.6% |
VRS VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | $22.4B | 22.4x | +5.6% | 29.3% | Hold | +35.3% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.5B | 26.9x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +21.4% |
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $125.4B | 21.6x | +7.8% | — | Buy | +29.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TRU Dividend and Capital Return
TRU returns capital mainly through $338M/year in buybacks (2.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.65% dividend — combining for 3.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
Payout Ratio
19.9%
How TRU Splits Its Return
Div 0.65%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 0.65%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.8%
5Y Div CAGR
8.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$338M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
193M
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.46 | +9.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $0.42 | +5.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTRU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TransUnion (TRU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TransUnion (TRU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $95, implying +34.2% from the current price of $71. The bear case scenario is $13 and the bull case is $101.
02What is the TRU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TRU is $95 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $111 (+57.0% from today), and the low-end target is $80 (+13.2%). The base case model target is $131.
03Is TransUnion (TRU) stock overvalued in 2026?
TRU trades at 14.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TransUnion (TRU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TRU in 2026 are: (1) Increased Competition — TransUnion faces significant competition in the credit data and analytics market from rivals like Equifax and Experian, which could pressure market share and pricing power. (2) Regulatory Changes — Potential changes in regulations within the financial and data industries pose a risk to TransUnion's business model, potentially impacting revenue and operational practices. (3) Debt Burden — TransUnion's high debt burden, resulting from strategic acquisitions, could constrain its valuation and financial flexibility if not managed effectively. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TransUnion's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TRU will report consensus revenue of $5.1B (+8.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.17 (+15.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.6B in revenue.
06When does TransUnion (TRU) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TRU is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TransUnion generate?
TransUnion (TRU) generated $697M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.7%. TRU returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($338M TTM).