Upside case
Bull case
$361+644.8%
TX would need investors to value it at roughly 88x earnings — about 76x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ternium S.A. (TX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
8 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering TX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$41
-14.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$24 – $361
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
TX price targets
Three scenarios for where TX stock could go
Current
~$48
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $48
Bear
$24
Base
$54
Bull
$361
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$54+11.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TX — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$24-50.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push TX down roughly 51% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ternium S.A.
TX · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
Ternium is a Latin American steel manufacturer that produces and sells a wide range of steel products across Mexico, Argentina, and other regional markets. It generates revenue primarily from its Steel segment — which includes slabs, flat products, bars, and tubes — with a smaller contribution from its Mining segment selling iron ore and pellets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated production facilities and strong regional presence across key Latin American markets, serving construction, automotive, and industrial customers.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$15.6B
Net Income TTM
$424M
Net Margin
2.7%
TX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.55/$0.33
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.28/$0.66
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.10/$0.78
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.62/$0.77
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.55/$0.33 | +66.7% | $3.9B/$3.9B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.28/$0.66 | +93.9% | $3.9B/$4.4B | -10.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.10/$0.78 | -87.2% | $4.0B/$3.9B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.62/$0.77 | -19.5% | $3.8B/$3.8B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.2B
-2.2% YoY
FY2
$14.8B
-2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.39
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$2.46
+3.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$187M
FCF Margin: -1.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Hot rolled
41.3%
-15.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
MEXICO
53.5%
-16.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Hot rolled is the largest disclosed segment at 41.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 15.8% YoY.
MEXICO is the largest reported region at 53.5%, down 16.5% YoY.
TX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $57 — implies +32.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
32.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TX
22.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
13% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
TX
22.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
In line with benchmark
vs TX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.0x
vs
5Y Average
8.9x
+148% premium
Forward PE
11.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-38%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-13%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-4%
5Y Avg
8.9x
+148%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-51%
Basic Materials
11.4x
-34%
5Y Avg
2.9x
+156%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Basic Materials
27.5x
—
5Y Avg
38.7x
—
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-81%
Basic Materials
2.0x
-69%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+40%
Dividend Yield
5.58%
S&P 500
1.88%
+197%
Basic Materials
1.37%
+307%
5Y Avg
8.01%
-30%
| Metric | TX | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg TX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.8x | 19.1x-38% | 15.4x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.0x | 25.2x-13% | 22.9x | 8.9x+148% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.3x-51% | 11.4x-34% | 2.9x+156% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 27.5x | 38.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-81% | 2.0x-69% | 0.4x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.58% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 8.01% |
TX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTX Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TX returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$187M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-1.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
5.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
124.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
196M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
MEXICO exposure
MEXICO represents 53.5% of disclosed revenue and changed -16.5% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
Medium
Hot rolled dependence
Hot rolled contributes 41.3% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at -15.8%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
TX trades at 22.0x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 22.9x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $24.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $15.2B in revenue (-2.2% growth) and $2.39 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$187M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield, and a 5.6% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Ternium S.A. already operates from a position of scale, with 14.7% gross margin, 4.5% operating margin, and -$187M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Other products still matters
Other products accounts for 5.6% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 15.4%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $41, or -14.6% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches $361. If $15.2B in forward revenue and $2.39 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 5.6% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.42
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$27.12
+78.5% from the low
52-Week High
$49.69
-2.6% from the high
1 Month
+21.96%
3 Month
+11.41%
YTD
+23.7%
1 Year
+64.7%
3Y CAGR
+7.8%
5Y CAGR
+4.8%
10Y CAGR
+10.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.8x
vs 16.5x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.2%
vs +3.7% median
-158% below peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 5.4% median
-50% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TX TX Ternium S.A. | $9.5B | 11.8x | -2.2% | 2.7% | Buy | -14.6% |
MT MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | $48.0B | 13.7x | -1.2% | 5.1% | Buy | -13.6% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $35.0B | 16.2x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $53.3B | 16.7x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.9% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.4B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.4% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.2B | 19.3x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -3.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TX Dividend and Capital Return
TX returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 5.58% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.58%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How TX Splits Its Return
Div 5.58%
Dividend 5.58%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
17.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
196M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.80 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.70 | -12.9% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| 2024 | $3.10 | +6.9% | 0.0% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | $2.90 | +7.4% | 0.0% | 6.8% |
| 2022 | $2.70 | -6.9% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ternium S.A. (TX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ternium S.A. (TX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $41, implying -14.6% from the current price of $48. The bear case scenario is $24 and the bull case is $361.
02What is the TX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TX is $41 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $49 (+1.2% from today), and the low-end target is $36 (-25.7%). The base case model target is $54.
03Is Ternium S.A. (TX) stock overvalued in 2026?
TX trades at 11.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ternium S.A. (TX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TX in 2026 are: (1) MEXICO exposure — MEXICO represents 53. (2) Hot rolled dependence — Hot rolled contributes 41. (3) Valuation de-rating — TX trades at 22. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ternium S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TX will report consensus revenue of $15.2B (-2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.39 (+10.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.8B in revenue.
06When does Ternium S.A. (TX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ternium S.A. generate?
Ternium S.A. (TX) had a free cash outflow of $187M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.2%. TX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).