Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing VFS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering VFS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$7
+54.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.8B
VFS price targets
Three scenarios for where VFS stock could go
Current
~$4
Confidence
16 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
VinFast Auto Ltd.
VFS · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
VinFast is a Vietnamese electric vehicle manufacturer that designs and produces EVs, e-scooters, and e-buses primarily for the Vietnamese market with expansion into North America. It generates revenue through vehicle sales—with cars being the dominant segment—alongside battery leasing and charging services for its products. The company benefits from being part of Vietnam's largest conglomerate, Vingroup, which provides capital and local market advantages.
Market Cap
$9.8B
Revenue TTM
$90.43T
Net Income TTM
-$97.04T
Net Margin
-107.3%
VFS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
0%Mixed
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-35.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.30/$-0.28
Revenue
$633M/$520M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.35/$-0.26
Revenue
$635M/$667M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.41/$-0.29
Revenue
$685M/$782M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.60/$-0.33
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.30/$-0.28 | -9.1% | $633M/$520M | +21.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.35/$-0.26 | -35.9% | $635M/$667M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.41/$-0.29 | -42.6% | $685M/$782M | -12.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.60/$-0.33 | -81.8% | $1.6B/$1.3B | +19.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$138.27T
+52.9% YoY
FY2
$204.41T
+47.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-29855.70
+28.0% YoY
FY2
$-40871.40
-36.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$67.94T
FCF Margin: -75.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VFS beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
VFS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $28.71T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
VIET NAM
97.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
VIET NAM is the largest reported region at 97.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
VFS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $19726 — implies +464048.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
464048.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VFS
-2.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
111% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
VFS
-2.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
114% discount
vs VFS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-2.7x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-2.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-111%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-114%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-8%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+303%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+865984%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | VFS | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg VFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -2.7x | 25.2x-111% | 19.6x-114% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 11.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 0.7x+303% | 0.0x+865984% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
VFS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 2 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVFS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for VFS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$90.43T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+105.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-42.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-79.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-107.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-41486.04
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$67.94T
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-75.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-188.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-55.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.92T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$98.94T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVFS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Profitability and Financial Health
VinFast is currently not profitable and has negative earnings, raising concerns about its financial strength and long-term viability. The company has less than a year of cash runway and negative shareholders' equity, which could severely impact its operations.
High Risk
Market Penetration and Competition
VinFast faces significant risks in penetrating the Asian market, compounded by intense competition from larger electric vehicle manufacturers. Failure to establish a foothold in this critical market could hinder growth and market share.
High Risk
Debt and Refinancing
VF Corporation has significant debt, and the potential for refinancing at higher interest rates could increase interest expenses, adversely affecting financial viability. This situation could lead to further financial instability if not managed effectively.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
VF Corporation's supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical instability, natural disasters, or pandemics. Such disruptions can significantly impair its ability to procure and distribute products, impacting overall revenue.
Medium
Brand Performance
VF Corporation relies heavily on certain brands, such as Vans, which have experienced declining sales. Continued underperformance of key brands could negatively affect overall revenue and market position.
Medium
Interest Rates
Increased interest rates pose challenges for both VF Corporation and VinFast in achieving long-term financial goals. Higher borrowing costs could limit investment opportunities and strain cash flows.
Lower
Share Price Volatility
VFS stock has shown strong volatility, with a possibility of price manipulation due to low free-float volume. This volatility can create uncertainty for investors and impact trading strategies.
Lower
Information Security
Concerns regarding the security of personal information and potential identity theft could impact consumer trust and brand reputation for VF Corporation. Any significant breach could lead to financial and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VFS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Analyst Consensus
A significant number of Wall Street analysts have issued 'Buy' ratings for VFS, contributing to a consensus rating of 'Moderate Buy' or 'Strong Buy'. The median price target from these analysts suggests a substantial upside potential, with forecasts ranging from $5.50 to $7.70.
Ambitious Growth Targets
VinFast has set a bold goal to deliver 300,000 vehicles in 2026. This aggressive target, coupled with strong 2025 earnings results, has fueled renewed investor interest.
Revenue Growth
The company has demonstrated impressive year-over-year revenue growth, with figures like +138.9% reported.
Market Position
Analysts appear to favor VinFast over other companies in the 'auto/tires/trucks' sector, as indicated by its 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating compared to the sector's average 'Hold' rating.
Positive Momentum
The stock has shown positive price momentum, with recent gains and a technical indicator suggesting an uptrend.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VFS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$4.21
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.78
+51.4% from the low
52-Week High
$5.29
-20.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.22%
3 Month
+26.43%
YTD
+24.6%
1 Year
+14.1%
3Y CAGR
-26.1%
5Y CAGR
-16.6%
10Y CAGR
-8.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VFS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 108.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+52.9%
vs +26.2% median
+102% above peer median
Net Margin
-107.3%
vs -7.1% median
-1412% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VFS VFS VinFast Auto Ltd. | $9.8B | — | +52.9% | -107.3% | Buy | +54.4% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $12.4B | — | +45.7% | -35.0% | Buy | +9.1% |
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $35.6B | 11.4x | +26.2% | 3.6% | Buy | +12.9% |
XPE XPEV XPeng Inc. | $5.6B | — | +44.6% | -7.1% | Buy | +60.1% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 206.1x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +13.0% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $17.9B | — | +25.5% | -63.6% | Buy | +26.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsVFS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $7, implying +54.4% from the current price of $4.
02What is the VFS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VFS is $7 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $8 (+90.0% from today), and the low-end target is $5 (+18.8%).
03Is VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for VFS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VFS in 2026 are: (1) Profitability and Financial Health — VinFast is currently not profitable and has negative earnings, raising concerns about its financial strength and long-term viability. (2) Market Penetration and Competition — VinFast faces significant risks in penetrating the Asian market, compounded by intense competition from larger electric vehicle manufacturers. (3) Debt and Refinancing — VF Corporation has significant debt, and the potential for refinancing at higher interest rates could increase interest expenses, adversely affecting financial viability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is VinFast Auto Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VFS will report consensus revenue of $138.27T (+52.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-29855.70 (+28.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $204.41T in revenue.
06When does VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VFS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does VinFast Auto Ltd. generate?
VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) had a free cash outflow of $67.94T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 75.1%. VFS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).