Upside case
Bull case
$116+416.3%
WDS would need investors to value it at roughly 55x earnings — about 44x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
2
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering WDS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
+24.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $116
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.6B
WDS price targets
Three scenarios for where WDS stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$5
Base
$48
Bull
$116
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$48+115.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-75.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push WDS down roughly 76% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Woodside Energy Group Ltd
WDS · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionDecember year-end
Woodside Energy Group is an Australian oil and gas company that explores for, develops, and produces hydrocarbons — primarily liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil — from assets across Australia, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. It generates revenue by selling LNG (its largest segment), pipeline gas, crude oil, condensate, and liquefied petroleum gas, with LNG exports to Asia being the dominant earnings driver. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ownership of large-scale, low-cost LNG production assets in Australia — particularly the North West Shelf and Pluto projects — which benefit from proximity to major Asian energy markets.
Market Cap
$42.6B
Revenue TTM
$26.2B
Net Income TTM
$6.3B
Net Margin
24.1%
WDS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-127.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2024
Q3 2024
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2024
EPS
$-0.04/$0.59
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.5B
Q3 2024
EPS
$1.01/$0.76
Revenue
$6.0B/$3.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.69
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.70
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | $-0.04/$0.59 | -107.2% | $6.6B/$6.5B | +1.1% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.01/$0.76 | +33.1% | $6.0B/$3.5B | +72.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.69 | -0.6% | $6.6B/$6.6B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74/$0.70 | +5.9% | $6.4B/$6.4B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.8B
-9.1% YoY
FY2
$24.9B
+4.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.01
-8.5% YoY
FY2
$3.06
+1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.5B
FCF Margin: -5.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WDS beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
WDS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
56.5%
-13.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 56.5%, down 13.1% YoY.
WDS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $50 — implies +113.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
113.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WDS
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
37% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
WDS
15.8x
vs
Energy
16.9x
6% discount
vs WDS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
11.4x
+38% premium
Forward PE
10.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-44%
Energy
13.2x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-37%
Energy
16.9x
-6%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+38%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-65%
Energy
8.1x
-34%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+37%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Energy
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
24.6x
—
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5%
Energy
1.6x
+110%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+38%
Dividend Yield
4.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
+150%
Energy
2.97%
+58%
5Y Avg
6.86%
-32%
| Metric | WDS | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg WDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.6x | 19.1x-44% | 13.2x-20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.2x-37% | 16.9x | 11.4x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4x | 15.3x-65% | 8.1x-34% | 3.9x+37% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 14.1x | 24.6x |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 1.6x+110% | 2.4x+38% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.69% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 6.86% |
WDS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWDS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
WDS returns 4.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-15.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.29
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-5.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.8%
Dividend
4.7%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$53M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
74.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageWDS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Woodside’s earnings are tightly linked to oil and natural gas prices. A sharp decline driven by easing geopolitical tensions or excess supply can compress revenue and earnings, even with hedging. Such a downturn would directly threaten dividend sustainability.
High Risk
Financial Leverage
Net debt stood at $8.7 billion as of 30 June 2025, above consensus estimates, and a 3 % probability of bankruptcy has been quantified. The high leverage makes the company vulnerable to price shocks, potentially forcing dividend cuts and eroding shareholder value.
Medium
Project Execution & Capital Intensity
Woodside is advancing capital‑intensive projects such as Scarborough, Pluto Train 2, and Louisiana LNG. Execution risks include delays, cost overruns, and regulatory hurdles; Louisiana LNG’s profitability hinges on the Henry Hub‑to‑global gas spread after 2030.
Medium
Regulatory & ESG Risks
The company faces scrutiny over project approvals like the North West Shelf Extension and evolving environmental rules. Shareholder and director votes have opposed Woodside’s climate plan, highlighting governance and ESG exposure.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
Middle‑East tensions and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz can trigger price spikes, while a de‑escalation can cause rapid price drops and sector‑wide selling, directly impacting Woodside’s revenue.
Lower
Labor Disputes
A potential pay‑dispute strike at the Pluto LNG 2 expansion could delay production, affecting cash flow and project timelines.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WDS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Analyst Consensus
Wall Street analysts largely rate Western Digital as a "Strong Buy" or "Buy". As of April 2026, 18 analysts have issued 12‑month price targets, with 21 out of 24 analysts recommending a buy and 3 a hold, underscoring widespread confidence.
UltraSMR Adoption Boosts Margins
UltraSMR technology now accounts for over 50% of Western Digital’s nearline portfolio. This shift is expected to lift operating margins as the higher‑density format reduces per‑gigabyte cost.
Cloud Customer Revenue Surge
Revenue from cloud customers reached $2.7 billion, up 27.5% year‑over‑year. The growth reflects strong demand for HDDs in data‑center deployments.
Exabyte Shipments Growth & Pricing Stability
Exabyte shipments grew 22% YoY, while average selling prices have stabilized and are projected to rise due to a favorable product‑mix shift. The combination supports a solid financial position.
Robust Earnings Growth
Western Digital’s annual earnings growth rate stands at 19.14%, substantially higher than the US Computer Hardware industry average forecast. This momentum indicates healthy profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WDS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$22.42
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.78
+75.4% from the low
52-Week High
$25.19
-11.0% from the high
1 Month
-8.15%
3 Month
+23.53%
YTD
+40.2%
1 Year
+73.7%
3Y CAGR
-1.0%
5Y CAGR
+4.7%
10Y CAGR
+1.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WDS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.6x
vs 15.0x median
-29% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.1%
vs +7.0% median
-229% below peer median
Net Margin
24.1%
vs 6.7% median
+260% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WDS WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd | $42.6B | 10.6x | -9.1% | 24.1% | Hold | +24.9% |
LNG LNG Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $54.9B | 17.5x | +10.9% | 27.0% | Buy | +1.5% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $369.4B | 15.2x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $629.6B | 15.0x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +8.0% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $116.5B | 8.7x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -1.7% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $246.8B | 8.9x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +8.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WDS Dividend and Capital Return
WDS returns 4.8% total yield, led by a 4.69% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
4.69%
Payout Ratio
74.0%
How WDS Splits Its Return
Div 4.69%
Dividend 4.69%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-20.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$53M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.06 | -16.5% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $1.27 | -42.3% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| 2023 | $2.20 | +4.8% | 0.0% | 10.6% |
| 2022 | $2.10 | +400.0% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsWDS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying +24.9% from the current price of $22. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $116.
02What is the WDS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WDS is $28 based on 2 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $28 (+24.9% from today), and the low-end target is $28 (+24.9%). The base case model target is $48.
03Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) stock overvalued in 2026?
WDS trades at 10.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WDS in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Woodside’s earnings are tightly linked to oil and natural gas prices. (2) Financial Leverage — Net debt stood at $8. (3) Project Execution & Capital Intensity — Woodside is advancing capital‑intensive projects such as Scarborough, Pluto Train 2, and Louisiana LNG. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Woodside Energy Group Ltd's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WDS will report consensus revenue of $23.8B (-9.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.01 (-8.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.9B in revenue.
06When does Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WDS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Woodside Energy Group Ltd generate?
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) had a free cash outflow of $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.7%. WDS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.7% yield) and share repurchases ($53M TTM).