Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing YPF more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 covering YPF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
+8.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.9B
YPF price targets
Three scenarios for where YPF stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
YPF Sociedad Anónima
YPF · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
YPF is Argentina's largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across the entire energy value chain from exploration to retail fuel sales. It generates revenue primarily from upstream oil and gas production (roughly 60% of revenue) and downstream refining and marketing operations (roughly 40%), including its extensive network of service stations. The company's key advantage is its dominant position as Argentina's national champion in energy—controlling significant reserves, refineries, and distribution infrastructure that create substantial barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$16.9B
Revenue TTM
$23.50T
Net Income TTM
-$1.20T
Net Margin
-5.1%
YPF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
20%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-96.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.04/$0.76
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.61
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.53/$0.73
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.67/$0.77
Revenue
$3M/$3M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.04/$0.76 | -105.3% | $4.6B/$4.6B | -0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.13/$0.61 | -78.7% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.53/$0.73 | -172.6% | $4.6B/$4.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.67/$0.77 | -316.9% | $3M/$3M | +4.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$31.04T
+32.1% YoY
FY2
$40.69T
+31.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1689.47
+44.8% YoY
FY2
$-1811.85
-7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.3B
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.77
Expected Revenue
$5.2B
YPF beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
YPF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Diesel
82.0%
-6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
ARGENTINA
98.1%
-4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Diesel is the largest disclosed segment at 82.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.6% YoY.
ARGENTINA is the largest reported region at 98.1%, down 4.3% YoY.
YPF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $71387 — implies +164462.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
164462.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
YPF
-19.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
178% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
YPF
-19.7x
vs
Energy
16.9x
217% discount
vs YPF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-19.7x
vs
5Y Average
0.7x
2797% discount
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-100%
Energy
13.2x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-19.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-178%
Energy
16.9x
-217%
5Y Avg
0.7x
-2797%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-64%
Energy
8.1x
-33%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+148%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Energy
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
11.7x
—
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-72%
Energy
1.6x
-43%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+84453%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Energy
2.97%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | YPF | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg YPF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 19.1x-100% | 13.2x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | -19.7x | 25.2x-178% | 16.9x-217% | 0.7x-2797% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5x | 15.3x-64% | 8.1x-33% | 2.2x+148% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 14.1x | 11.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-72% | 1.6x-43% | 0.0x+84453% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.97% | — |
YPF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolYPF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for YPF are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$23.50T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+31.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-5.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-3061.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.35T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.83T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
907.5× FCF
~907.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-8.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$14.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
392M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageYPF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Instability
YPF's stock performance is significantly affected by Argentina's macroeconomic instability, including a wide exchange rate gap and fuel price controls. A 10% devaluation of the Argentine peso can reduce YPF's theoretical value by approximately 4.5%, while sovereign credit risk often decouples YPF's stock movements from global oil prices.
High Risk
Political & Regulatory Uncertainty
Political developments and regulatory changes in Argentina strongly correlate with YPF's stock price movements. The current high 'Regulatory Risk Index' indicates substantial political-regulatory risk, compounded by a 2023 U.S. court ruling against Argentina in the expropriation case of YPF, creating a long-term legal overhang.
Medium
Global Oil Market Volatility
YPF's stock is correlated with international oil prices, particularly Brent crude, with a beta of 1.42 indicating amplified price movements. Volatility in global oil prices directly impacts export revenue, making YPF's earnings increasingly sensitive to these commodity price swings.
Medium
High Debt Load & Refinancing Risk
YPF carries a substantial debt load exceeding $6.5 billion, with approximately 95% denominated in U.S. dollars, exposing it to Argentine peso devaluation. The company faces significant refinancing risks due to Argentina's macroeconomic environment and capital controls.
Lower
Operational Challenges in Vaca Muerta
The development of the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas field presents both potential and challenges, requiring high capital expenditures that can strain free cash flow. While operations are resilient to lower oil prices, margin compression can be severe during price drops.
Lower
Company-Specific Financials
YPF's high leverage ratio and negative working capital indicate potential liquidity concerns. Although analysts predict profitability for the current year, the company operates under a significant debt burden.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why YPF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Importance and Operational Improvements
YPF is a vertically integrated energy company in Argentina, playing a crucial role in the country's oil and gas sector. The company has been undergoing an operational transformation, focusing on higher shale production and improved efficiency, particularly in the Vaca Muerta region.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Several Wall Street analysts have issued 'Buy' ratings and set price targets that suggest significant upside potential. The average 12-month price target from analysts is around $50.30, representing a potential increase of over 17% from recent trading prices.
Potential for Revaluation
While YPF's valuation multiples have compressed, they are becoming more in line with sector averages, indicating a potential revaluation. Some analysts consider YPF to be among the more undervalued oil stocks.
Shareholder Returns and Financial Management
YPF has repurchased some of its debt notes, which could be seen as a positive move for financial management. Despite some recent earnings misses, revenue has shown an ability to top estimates in some quarters.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
YPF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$43.26
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.82
+89.6% from the low
52-Week High
$48.95
-11.6% from the high
1 Month
-1.41%
3 Month
+13.42%
YTD
+19.2%
1 Year
+43.3%
3Y CAGR
+55.4%
5Y CAGR
+62.9%
10Y CAGR
+7.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
YPF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 13.8x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.1%
vs +7.0% median
+355% above peer median
Net Margin
-5.1%
vs 8.9% median
-157% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YPF YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | $16.9B | 0.0x | +32.1% | -5.1% | Buy | +8.6% |
PBR PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $77.8B | 5.6x | -0.3% | 16.2% | Buy | -10.7% |
EC EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $27.5B | 0.0x | -6.2% | 7.5% | Hold | -22.5% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $369.4B | 15.2x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | +3.1% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $629.6B | 15.0x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +8.0% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $144.9B | 13.8x | +8.9% | 12.6% | Buy | +6.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
YPF Dividend and Capital Return
YPF does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$14.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
335M
Approx. Share Reduction
85.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
392M
At 85.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $0.14 | +76.7% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 2018 | $0.08 | -60.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 2017 | $0.20 | +30.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 2016 | $0.15 | +10.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2015 | $0.14 | -3.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsYPF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying +8.6% from the current price of $43.
02What is the YPF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for YPF is $47 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $47 (+8.6% from today), and the low-end target is $47 (+8.6%).
03Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock overvalued in 2026?
YPF trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for YPF in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Instability — YPF's stock performance is significantly affected by Argentina's macroeconomic instability, including a wide exchange rate gap and fuel price controls. (2) Political & Regulatory Uncertainty — Political developments and regulatory changes in Argentina strongly correlate with YPF's stock price movements. (3) Global Oil Market Volatility — YPF's stock is correlated with international oil prices, particularly Brent crude, with a beta of 1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is YPF Sociedad Anónima's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates YPF will report consensus revenue of $31.04T (+32.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1689.47 (+44.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.69T in revenue.
06When does YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) report its next earnings?
YPF Sociedad Anónima is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.77 and revenue of $5.2B. Over recent quarters, YPF has beaten EPS estimates 20% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does YPF Sociedad Anónima generate?
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) generated $16.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. YPF returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($14.5B TTM).