Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing YPF more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 15 covering YPF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$48
-5.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.8B
YPF price targets
Three scenarios for where YPF stock could go
Current
~$50
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
YPF Sociedad Anónima
YPF · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
YPF is Argentina's largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across the entire energy value chain from exploration to retail fuel sales. It generates revenue primarily from upstream oil and gas production (roughly 60% of revenue) and downstream refining and marketing operations (roughly 40%), including its extensive network of service stations. The company's key advantage is its dominant position as Argentina's national champion in energy—controlling significant reserves, refineries, and distribution infrastructure that create substantial barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$19.8B
Revenue TTM
$13.23T
Net Income TTM
-$1.24T
Net Margin
-9.4%
YPF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
30%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-93.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.61
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.53/$0.73
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.67/$0.77
Revenue
$3M/$3M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.03/$0.83
Revenue
$3.5B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.13/$0.61 | -78.7% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.53/$0.73 | -172.6% | $4.6B/$4.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.67/$0.77 | -316.9% | $3M/$3M | +4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.03/$0.83 | +24.1% | $3.5B/$5.0B | -30.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.03T
+13.6% YoY
FY2
$17.00T
+13.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2635.22
+17.0% YoY
FY2
$-2191.52
+16.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$75.7B
FCF Margin: 0.6%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.66
Expected Revenue
$5.9B
YPF beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
YPF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Diesel
82.0%
-6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
ARGENTINA
98.1%
-4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Diesel is the largest disclosed segment at 82.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.6% YoY.
ARGENTINA is the largest reported region at 98.1%, down 4.3% YoY.
YPF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $38759 — implies +76726.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
76726.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
YPF
-23.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
197% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
YPF
-23.7x
vs
Energy
15.5x
254% discount
vs YPF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-23.7x
vs
5Y Average
0.7x
3352% discount
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-100%
Energy
12.5x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-23.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-197%
Energy
15.5x
-254%
5Y Avg
0.7x
-3352%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-59%
Energy
7.8x
-21%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+179%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Energy
13.8x
—
5Y Avg
11.7x
—
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Energy
1.4x
-24%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+101859%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Energy
3.47%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | YPF | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg YPF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 18.8x-100% | 12.5x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | -23.7x | 24.4x-197% | 15.5x-254% | 0.7x-3352% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2x | 15.2x-59% | 7.8x-21% | 2.2x+179% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 13.8x | 11.7x |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 1.4x-24% | 0.0x+101859% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.47% | — |
YPF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolYPF Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for YPF are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.23T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-26.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-9.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-3173.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$75.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.35T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.83T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
195.9× FCF
~195.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-8.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$14.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
392M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageYPF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
LNG Project Risk
The bear case suggests the LNG project could be shelved indefinitely due to lack of financing or political will, capping YPF's long-term revenue growth to 3%-5%.
Medium
Export Dependency
YPF's pivot to export-led growth via Vaca Muerta exposes it to global commodity price volatility and execution risks, with crude exports targeted to reach 30% of revenue by 2026.
Medium
Political & Regulatory Risk
Argentina's unstable political environment and potential policy shifts could delay or disrupt YPF's 2026 pipeline deadline and shale expansion plans.
Lower
Competitive Pressure
Peers like Vista Energy and Pan American Energy may challenge YPF's medium-term leadership in Argentina's shale boom despite its scale and infrastructure advantages.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why YPF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Geopolitical and energy bet
The company's transformation is tied to Argentina's normalization and energy security, making it a strategic asset with a $15.6 billion market cap.
Insider buying confidence
A director's open-market purchase of shares at $54.44 per share signals strong insider confidence in YPF's future performance.
Bullish analyst thesis
A bullish investment thesis on YPF highlights its potential upside, as discussed in Danny Green's Substack article.
Comprehensive SEC filings
MarketBeat provides extensive SEC filing history for YPF, offering transparency and detailed financial insights for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
YPF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$50.45
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.82
+121.1% from the low
52-Week High
$57.49
-12.2% from the high
1 Month
+6.26%
3 Month
+27.79%
YTD
+39.0%
1 Year
+43.0%
3Y CAGR
+51.4%
5Y CAGR
+58.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
YPF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 10.6x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.6%
vs +5.7% median
+136% above peer median
Net Margin
-9.4%
vs 8.9% median
-206% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YPF YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | $19.8B | 0.0x | +13.6% | -9.4% | Buy | -5.8% |
PBR PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $107.9B | 4.0x | +5.7% | 21.8% | Buy | +19.4% |
EC EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $34.1B | 0.0x | +2.1% | 7.5% | Hold | -21.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
COP COP ConocoPhillips | $131.3B | 10.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
YPF Dividend and Capital Return
YPF does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$14.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
288M
Approx. Share Reduction
73.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
392M
At 73.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $0.14 | +76.7% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| 2018 | $0.08 | -60.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 2017 | $0.20 | +30.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 2016 | $0.15 | +10.1% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2015 | $0.14 | -3.7% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsYPF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $48, implying -5.8% from the current price of $50.
02What is the YPF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for YPF is $48 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $48 (-4.9% from today), and the low-end target is $47 (-6.8%).
03Is YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock overvalued in 2026?
YPF trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for YPF in 2026 are: (1) LNG Project Risk — The bear case suggests the LNG project could be shelved indefinitely due to lack of financing or political will, capping YPF's long-term revenue growth to 3%-5%. (2) Export Dependency — YPF's pivot to export-led growth via Vaca Muerta exposes it to global commodity price volatility and execution risks, with crude exports targeted to reach 30% of revenue by 2026. (3) Political & Regulatory Risk — Argentina's unstable political environment and potential policy shifts could delay or disrupt YPF's 2026 pipeline deadline and shale expansion plans. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is YPF Sociedad Anónima's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates YPF will report consensus revenue of $15.03T (+13.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2635.22 (+17.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.00T in revenue.
06When does YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) report its next earnings?
YPF Sociedad Anónima is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.66 and revenue of $5.9B. Over recent quarters, YPF has beaten EPS estimates 30% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does YPF Sociedad Anónima generate?
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) generated $75.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.6%. YPF returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($14.5B TTM).