MODEL VERDICT
American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 52 industry peers | $386.77 | +30596.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 48 bank peers | $457.05 | +36173.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 40 analyst estimates | $0.99 | -21.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $311.47 | +24619.5% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.22 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 11.97 | 5.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.90 | 0.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 4.59 | 2.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABTC's fair value at $311.47 vs the current price of $1.26, implying +24619.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $311.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $147.09 (P10) to $463.78 (P90), with a median of $288.80.
ABTC's current P/E of -0.5x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -102.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ABTC.
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ABTC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.