Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$194.79
→
Intrinsic$393.09
+102%
$263.64$393.09$650.59
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests CRM could have 102% upside at 15% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $195, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 15%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $264 → Bull $651. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $488 | $531 | $576 | $625 |
| 10% | $335 | $363 | $393 | $425 |
| 12% | $253 | $274 | $296 | $320 |
| 14% | $203 | $220 | $237 | $255 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($651) offers 234% upside at 18% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (15%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($264) with 12% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$16.56B
Year 2$19.05B
Year 3$21.90B
Year 4$25.19B
Year 5$28.97B
Terminal$459.02B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$14.40BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.