MODEL VERDICT
Arteris, Inc. (AIP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $28.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $26.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $20.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $19.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $5.54 | -80.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $6.12 | -78.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $13.33 | -54.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $12.38 | -57.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $4.87 | -83.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.08 | -72.1% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 14.81 | 9.81 | 4.87 | 29.73 | 13.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.80 | 8.77 | 3.73 | 13.91 | 5.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.02 | 6.87 | 2.78 | 12.25 | 3.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates AIP's fair value at $8.08 vs the current price of $28.95, implying -72.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.03 (P10) to $8.70 (P90), with a median of $7.36.
AIP's current P/E of -35.3x compares to the industry median of 38.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -191.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover AIP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $20.00 — $24.00), implying -24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AIP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.