MODEL VERDICT
Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $17.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $16.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $10.64 | -34.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $4.56 | -71.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $2.22 | -86.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $10.59 | -34.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $10.78 | -33.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $4.27 | -73.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.49 | -41.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 12.98 | 12.71 | 6.32 | 20.16 | 6.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.60 | 6.62 | 3.97 | 10.16 | 2.32 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.65 | 8.61 | 5.40 | 11.86 | 2.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALKT's fair value at $9.49 vs the current price of $16.16, implying -41.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.32 (P10) to $10.24 (P90), with a median of $8.26.
ALKT's current P/E of -35.1x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -255.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ALKT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying +36.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALKT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.