MODEL VERDICT
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $220.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $229.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $244.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $241.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $239.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $63.02 | -71.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $10.92 | -95.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $5.61 | -97.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $42.75 | -80.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $49.31 | -77.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $16.67 | -92.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $193.03 | -12.6% | 100% | 64 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.98 | 10.52 | 8.39 | 26.49 | 8.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.81 | 10.45 | 8.34 | 26.00 | 8.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 406.60 | 133.82 | 18.68 | 1214.13 | 494.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASND's fair value at $193.03 vs the current price of $220.93, implying -12.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $193.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.39 (P10) to $424.49 (P90), with a median of $187.12.
ASND's current P/E of -52.0x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -321.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover ASND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $287.17 (range: $250.00 — $342.00), implying +30.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.