MODEL VERDICT
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $233.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $225.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $216.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $224.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $202.99 | Pending | +9.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $121.63 | -47.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $19.02 | -91.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $13.02 | -94.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $105.06 | -55.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $108.81 | -53.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $19.91 | -91.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $225.82 | -3.3% | 100% | 64 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.98 | 10.52 | 8.39 | 26.49 | 8.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.81 | 10.45 | 8.34 | 26.00 | 8.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 406.60 | 133.82 | 18.68 | 1214.13 | 494.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASND's fair value at $225.82 vs the current price of $233.50, implying -3.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $225.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.92 (P10) to $467.81 (P90), with a median of $227.35.
ASND's current P/E of -54.7x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -355.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover ASND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $286.50 (range: $250.00 — $342.00), implying +22.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ASND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.