MODEL VERDICT
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $202.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $196.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $203.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $199.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $194.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $313.15 | +54.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $164.33 | -18.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $303.97 | +49.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $68.86 | -66.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $261.53 | +29.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $242.63 | +19.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $271.26 | +33.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $320.75 | +58.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $219.55 | +8.3% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.48 | 18.29 | 14.24 | 39.11 | 11.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.39 | 15.68 | 13.74 | 27.70 | 5.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.85 | 13.12 | 8.63 | 26.41 | 6.07 |
| P/FCF | 11.14 | 10.38 | 6.03 | 17.93 | 4.18 |
| P/FFO | 22.45 | 18.05 | 6.66 | 55.78 | 17.70 |
| P/AFFO | 35.96 | 25.45 | 6.88 | 81.57 | 32.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.46 | 2.40 | 1.92 | 3.23 | 0.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.83 | 2.46 | 2.00 | 3.97 | 0.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates JAZZ's fair value at $219.55 vs the current price of $202.72, implying +8.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $219.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $181.46 (P10) to $287.40 (P90), with a median of $234.61.
JAZZ's current P/E of -34.7x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -243.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover JAZZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $216.14 (range: $188.00 — $235.00), implying +6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (42), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for JAZZ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.