MODEL VERDICT
Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $30.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $29.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $28.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $37.33 | +23.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $359.51 | +1092.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $466.33 | +1446.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $37.33 | +23.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $38.23 | +26.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $200.95 | +566.5% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $20 | $26 | $33 | $39 | $46 |
| Conservative (9%) | $20 | $27 | $34 | $41 | $48 |
| Base Case (14.1%) | $21 | $28 | $35 | $43 | $50 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $22 | $30 | $37 | $44 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVBH's fair value at $200.95 vs the current price of $30.15, implying +566.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $200.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $205.95 (P10) to $238.55 (P90), with a median of $222.03.
AVBH's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -19.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover AVBH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying +16.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 32.3% is 5.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (26.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$25. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVBH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1820.0% to approximately $25. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.