MODEL VERDICT
WaFd, Inc. (WAFD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $35.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $35.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $35.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $32.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $32.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $35.38 | -0.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $53.14 | +49.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $61.40 | +73.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $45.13 | +27.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $35.38 | -0.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $38.54 | +8.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.41 | +16.8% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $30 | $35 | $40 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
| Base Case (3.1%) | $24 | $30 | $35 | $41 | $46 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.89 | 12.18 | 8.86 | 14.04 | 1.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.34 | 13.01 | 8.80 | 18.19 | 2.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.47 | 11.47 | 7.68 | 16.27 | 3.02 |
| P/FCF | 10.79 | 10.81 | 5.78 | 14.86 | 3.40 |
| P/FFO | 9.38 | 9.26 | 7.17 | 12.23 | 2.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.18 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 10.57 | 10.89 | 7.60 | 14.34 | 2.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.01 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 1.45 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.71 | 2.79 | 1.67 | 4.02 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WAFD's fair value at $41.41 vs the current price of $35.46, implying +16.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.10 (P10) to $44.08 (P90), with a median of $41.59.
WAFD's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +0.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover WAFD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $34.00 — $36.00), implying -1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WAFD trades at the 5460th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WAFD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2570.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.