MODEL VERDICT
Atlanta Braves Holdings, Inc. (BATRA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $48.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $47.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $47.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $45.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $43.02 | Below threshold | +2.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $2.33 | -95.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $9.45 | -80.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $12.48 | -74.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.81 | -19.8% | 100% | 64 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 87.36 | 64.68 | 22.71 | 174.10 | 64.29 |
| P/FFO | 58.83 | 56.75 | 25.77 | 96.06 | 29.07 |
| P/TBV | 9463.21 | 11.35 | 10.78 | 47210.98 | 21101.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.09 | 5.04 | 4.00 | 6.78 | 0.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.19 | 3.70 | 2.65 | 8.38 | 1.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates BATRA's fair value at $38.81 vs the current price of $48.41, implying -19.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.65 (P10) to $65.57 (P90), with a median of $34.85.
BATRA's current P/E of -130.8x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -534.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover BATRA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BATRA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.