MODEL VERDICT
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $7.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $6.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $6.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.40 | Pending | -14.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $7.96 | -9.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $34.08 | +289.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $26.38 | +201.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $42.40 | +384.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $38.97 | +345.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $39.03 | +346.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $38.89 | +344.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $40.81 | +366.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $32.12 | +267.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $46.10 | +426.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.87 | +252.8% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $9 | $11 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $7 | $9 | $12 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $7 | $10 | $12 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 15.81 | 7.88 | 1.95 | 69.96 | 24.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCRX's fair value at $30.87 vs the current price of $8.75, implying +252.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.59 (P10) to $40.42 (P90), with a median of $31.17.
BCRX's current P/E of 7.2x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -66.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover BCRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.40 (range: $8.00 — $25.00), implying +64.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BCRX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.