MODEL VERDICT
Bill.com Holdings, Inc. (BILL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $39.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $37.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $38.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $39.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $34.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $33.76 | -13.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $6.49 | -83.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $50.70 | +29.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $45.87 | +17.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $47.78 | +22.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $45.76 | +17.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $6.48 | -83.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $50.70 | +29.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.85 | +27.6% | 100% | 73 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 142× | 156× | 170× (Current) | 184× | 198× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 36.13 | 34.85 | 18.30 | 55.23 | 18.50 |
| P/TBV | 16.98 | 7.70 | 4.38 | 60.65 | 21.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.32 | 2.46 | 1.45 | 15.29 | 5.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 31.03 | 17.27 | 3.87 | 86.60 | 33.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates BILL's fair value at $49.85 vs the current price of $39.07, implying +27.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.10 (P10) to $64.31 (P90), with a median of $48.24.
BILL's current P/E of 169.9x compares to the industry median of 28.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +501.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover BILL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $54.22 (range: $42.00 — $77.00), implying +38.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BILL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.