MODEL VERDICT
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $186.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $203.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $179.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $179.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $174.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $179 | $196 | $212 | $229 | $246 |
| Conservative (23%) | $193 | $211 | $229 | $247 | $264 |
| Base Case (35.0%) | $212 | $232 | $252 | $271 | $291 |
| Bull Case (47%) | $232 | $253 | $274 | $296 | $317 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.28 | 33.38 | 13.23 | 43.09 | 12.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.35 | 28.04 | 9.68 | 39.12 | 11.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.64 | 27.53 | 8.81 | 48.76 | 14.06 |
| P/FCF | 30.54 | 35.56 | 17.10 | 47.60 | 11.78 |
| P/FFO | 26.09 | 30.87 | 12.02 | 40.16 | 11.83 |
| P/TBV | 5.25 | 3.90 | 2.46 | 8.81 | 2.83 |
| P/AFFO | 28.52 | 33.49 | 13.48 | 44.42 | 13.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.80 | 3.89 | 2.45 | 7.26 | 2.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.98 | 5.68 | 2.02 | 10.75 | 3.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAMT's fair value at $153.65 vs the current price of $186.62, implying -17.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $153.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
CAMT's current P/E of 77.1x compares to the industry median of 59.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +30.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover CAMT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $165.60 (range: $120.00 — $190.00), implying -11.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CAMT trades at the 6600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CAMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7020.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.