MODEL VERDICT
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $22.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $21.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $34.78 | +54.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $24.91 | +10.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $31.51 | +39.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $28.56 | +26.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $28.47 | +26.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $20.38 | -9.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $17.10 | -24.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $24.19 | +7.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $31.74 | +40.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $28.50 | +26.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.51 | +31.0% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $21 | $24 | $26 | $29 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CON's fair value at $29.51 vs the current price of $22.53, implying +31.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.26 (P10) to $35.69 (P90), with a median of $28.84.
CON's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -28.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
4 analysts cover CON with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $31.00 — $31.00), implying +37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CON's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -3.7σ, meaning margins are 3.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2830.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.