MODEL VERDICT
Cronos Group Inc. (CRON)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $2.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $2.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $2.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $2.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $2.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 30 analyst estimates | $1.14 | -56.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 1 industry peers | $3.26 | +23.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 1 industry peers | $1.16 | -56.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.65 | +0.4% | 100% | 41 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 0.98 | 0.74 | 1.80 | 0.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.03 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.37 | 16.76 | 6.62 | 110.71 | 40.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRON's fair value at $2.65 vs the current price of $2.64, implying +0.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 41/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.29 (P10) to $3.69 (P90), with a median of $2.30.
CRON's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 24.4x (24 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: N/A.
15 analysts cover CRON with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.30 (range: $2.30 — $2.30), implying -12.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 41/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (8), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRON.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.