MODEL VERDICT
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $131.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $127.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $133.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $131.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $128.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $75.05 | -43.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $78.89 | -40.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $81.14 | -38.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $84.50 | -35.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $79.24 | -39.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $71.63 | -45.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $6.42 | -95.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $93.86 | -28.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $101.73 | -22.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $79.80 | -39.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $88.68 | -32.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $147.59 | +12.0% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $114 | $124 | $133 | $143 | $152 |
| Conservative (5%) | $118 | $127 | $137 | $147 | $157 |
| Base Case (2.3%) | $115 | $124 | $134 | $143 | $153 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $116 | $125 | $135 | $145 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 84.71 | 53.34 | 23.04 | 275.62 | 87.73 |
| EV/EBIT | 62.70 | 56.89 | 23.47 | 135.97 | 40.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.92 | 49.54 | 23.00 | 133.83 | 37.97 |
| P/FCF | 39.26 | 36.58 | 19.42 | 77.78 | 18.75 |
| P/FFO | 74.65 | 49.11 | 22.54 | 231.49 | 72.45 |
| P/TBV | 7.67 | 6.07 | 4.47 | 16.16 | 3.93 |
| P/AFFO | 97.48 | 54.83 | 23.15 | 345.87 | 113.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.62 | 6.07 | 4.47 | 16.16 | 3.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.92 | 7.36 | 5.08 | 13.06 | 2.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NBIX's fair value at $147.59 vs the current price of $131.78, implying +12.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $147.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $112.07 (P10) to $206.06 (P90), with a median of $155.76.
NBIX's current P/E of 28.2x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +62.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 84.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover NBIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $178.09 (range: $140.00 — $220.00), implying +35.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NBIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18600.0% to approximately $377. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.