MODEL VERDICT
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $10.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $8.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $7.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $7.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $7.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $1.56 | -84.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $15.34 | +51.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $1.07 | -89.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $24.80 | +145.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $23.02 | +127.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.30 | +21.8% | 100% | 54 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 39.61 | 25.99 | 19.56 | 94.54 | 28.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.65 | 9.76 | 9.03 | 107.28 | 36.52 |
| P/FFO | 17.76 | 5.73 | 5.27 | 70.03 | 25.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.72 | 1.66 | 1.31 | 2.25 | 0.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.90 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 5.97 | 1.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTOS's fair value at $12.30 vs the current price of $10.10, implying +21.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.58 (P10) to $25.31 (P90), with a median of $12.59.
CTOS's current P/E of -72.1x compares to the industry median of 19.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -463.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover CTOS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $11.00 — $11.00), implying +8.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CTOS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.