MODEL VERDICT
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $38.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $41.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $45.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $42.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $39.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $55.20 | +43.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $10.94 | -71.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $101.67 | +163.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $101.84 | +164.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $9.41 | -75.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.77 | +18.7% | 100% | 64 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.73 | 21.19 | 10.95 | 95.42 | 33.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.67 | 12.65 | 10.47 | 24.39 | 5.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.66 | 10.76 | 7.68 | 19.09 | 3.95 |
| P/FCF | 20.86 | 8.95 | 8.21 | 45.42 | 21.27 |
| P/FFO | 8.30 | 7.59 | 6.60 | 12.04 | 1.99 |
| P/TBV | 5.81 | 3.76 | 2.42 | 10.68 | 3.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.69 | 1.74 | 1.22 | 2.15 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.41 | 1.80 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALK's fair value at $45.77 vs the current price of $38.55, implying +18.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.44 (P10) to $60.38 (P90), with a median of $43.25.
ALK's current P/E of 44.3x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +252.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover ALK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $54.00 — $77.00), implying +73.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ALK trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.