MODEL VERDICT
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $38.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $38.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $36.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $37.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $37.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $42.98 | +13.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $34.68 | -8.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $53.63 | +41.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $18.90 | -50.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $39.74 | +4.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $9.59 | -74.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $14.85 | -61.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $106.18 | +179.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $92.16 | +142.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $52.03 | +36.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $18.90 | -50.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.36 | -7.0% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 | $50 |
| Conservative (6%) | $28 | $34 | $39 | $45 | $51 |
| Base Case (9.2%) | $29 | $35 | $41 | $46 | $52 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $30 | $36 | $42 | $48 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.31 | 11.46 | 9.65 | 13.47 | 1.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.38 | 13.58 | 11.76 | 14.97 | 1.21 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.24 | 10.51 | 9.19 | 11.44 | 0.83 |
| P/FCF | 17.22 | 16.57 | 7.69 | 31.17 | 8.35 |
| P/FFO | 8.06 | 7.68 | 7.11 | 9.79 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 3.11 | 2.98 | 2.59 | 3.73 | 0.42 |
| P/AFFO | 18.77 | 18.53 | 9.64 | 34.36 | 8.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 2.01 | 1.70 | 2.40 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 1.89 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPD's fair value at $35.36 vs the current price of $38.03, implying -7.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.42 (P10) to $41.83 (P90), with a median of $37.56.
EPD's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -29.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
45 analysts cover EPD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $32.00 — $42.00), implying -2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (34), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EPD trades at the 3060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EPD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 730.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.