MODEL VERDICT
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $25.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $50.35 | +99.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $35.00 | +38.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $71.75 | +184.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $36.15 | +43.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $33.18 | +31.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $25.40 | +0.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $144.22 | +472.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $26.04 | +3.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $29.08 | +15.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $71.75 | +184.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $36.15 | +43.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.06 | +90.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $18 | $24 | $29 | $35 | $41 |
| Conservative (23%) | $19 | $25 | $32 | $38 | $45 |
| Base Case (35.7%) | $21 | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $23 | $31 | $38 | $46 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.58 | 14.31 | 6.92 | 28.96 | 7.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.59 | 14.02 | 5.47 | 22.40 | 5.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.92 | 9.50 | 4.17 | 14.95 | 3.75 |
| P/FCF | 37.59 | 32.76 | 7.61 | 77.24 | 28.97 |
| P/FFO | 20.05 | 8.11 | 5.60 | 82.68 | 27.86 |
| P/TBV | 4.08 | 3.15 | 1.85 | 8.36 | 2.55 |
| P/AFFO | 34.97 | 24.34 | 20.91 | 59.65 | 21.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.08 | 3.15 | 1.85 | 8.36 | 2.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.77 | 3.51 | 2.84 | 5.85 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ERO's fair value at $48.06 vs the current price of $25.21, implying +90.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.00 (P10) to $46.35 (P90), with a median of $41.14.
ERO's current P/E of 9.8x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -64.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover ERO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.50 (range: $31.00 — $32.00), implying +25.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ERO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (32.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5450.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.