MODEL VERDICT
Green Dot Corporation (GDOT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.54 | Pending | -4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $27.25 | +135.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $13.77 | +19.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $12.45 | +7.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.18 | +109.1% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.30 | 39.56 | 12.39 | 132.86 | 45.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.36 | 10.46 | 0.87 | 52.15 | 21.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.15 | 4.59 | 0.47 | 16.34 | 7.20 |
| P/FCF | 25.84 | 19.95 | 4.41 | 80.26 | 24.98 |
| P/FFO | 13.38 | 9.82 | 5.80 | 27.42 | 8.74 |
| P/TBV | 4.16 | 3.05 | 1.18 | 12.08 | 3.82 |
| P/AFFO | 30.63 | 30.16 | 11.93 | 59.65 | 17.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.34 | 0.60 | 4.76 | 1.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.46 | 1.12 | 0.33 | 4.07 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates GDOT's fair value at $24.18 vs the current price of $11.56, implying +109.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.95 (P10) to $35.96 (P90), with a median of $25.26.
GDOT's current P/E of -23.1x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -302.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
39 analysts cover GDOT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.25 (range: $14.25 — $14.25), implying +23.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (24), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GDOT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.