MODEL VERDICT
Galapagos N.V. (GLPG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $33.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $33.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $33.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $33.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.11 | Pending | +1.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $80.84 | +140.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $105.75 | +214.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $170.60 | +406.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $163.64 | +386.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $172.11 | +411.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $128.75 | +282.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $183.83 | +446.1% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $20 | $30 | $40 | $50 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $21 | $31 | $41 | $52 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $21 | $32 | $43 | $53 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $22 | $33 | $44 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.95 | 24.55 | 6.74 | 79.55 | 37.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 124.16 | 27.34 | 3.97 | 341.17 | 188.30 |
| P/FFO | 27.12 | 12.85 | 6.08 | 76.71 | 33.27 |
| P/TBV | 1.67 | 1.26 | 0.67 | 4.18 | 1.26 |
| P/AFFO | 47.79 | 17.68 | 11.33 | 114.35 | 57.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.15 | 0.63 | 4.14 | 1.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.57 | 11.18 | 1.94 | 14.27 | 4.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates GLPG's fair value at $183.83 vs the current price of $33.66, implying +446.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $183.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.07 (P10) to $298.55 (P90), with a median of $177.32.
GLPG's current P/E of 5.9x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -73.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover GLPG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.50 (range: $33.00 — $40.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (11), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GLPG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.