MODEL VERDICT
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $145.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $127.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $127.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $133.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $185.19 | Below threshold | -32.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $59.93 | -58.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $21.25 | -85.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $21.03 | -85.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $67.08 | -53.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $11.86 | -91.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $61.97 | -57.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $50.69 | -65.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $48.97 | -66.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $22.25 | -84.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $67.17 | -53.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $108.64 | -25.2% | 100% | 73 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 151× | 165× | 179× (Current) | 193× | 207× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $127 | $139 | $151 | $163 | $174 |
| Conservative (7%) | $130 | $142 | $154 | $166 | $179 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $135 | $147 | $159 | $172 | $184 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $139 | $152 | $165 | $177 | $190 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 353.65 | 266.65 | 220.62 | 573.69 | 191.94 |
| P/FCF | 155.96 | 118.36 | 58.51 | 427.35 | 136.00 |
| P/FFO | 470.20 | 437.62 | 149.56 | 856.02 | 356.77 |
| P/TBV | 10.14 | 8.36 | 4.94 | 16.43 | 4.06 |
| P/AFFO | 791.07 | 767.32 | 196.64 | 1409.25 | 606.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.37 | 6.44 | 3.60 | 11.85 | 2.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.08 | 12.77 | 6.43 | 14.37 | 2.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates GWRE's fair value at $108.64 vs the current price of $145.32, implying -25.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $108.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.60 (P10) to $163.16 (P90), with a median of $100.95.
GWRE's current P/E of 179.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +591.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover GWRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $253.50 (range: $175.00 — $300.00), implying +74.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for GWRE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.