MODEL VERDICT
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (HPP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $7.24 | Pending | +24.7% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $6.37 | Below threshold | +28.6% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $6.58 | Below threshold | +1.7% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $7.39 | Below threshold | -19.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $12.27 | +31.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $0.13 | -98.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $63.03 | +577.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $53.42 | +473.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $51.08 | +448.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.28 | +85.6% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 493.34 | 88.25 | 19.21 | 1372.57 | 762.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.54 | 33.45 | 27.05 | 88.85 | 25.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 | 9.52 | 6.31 | 14.98 | 3.11 |
| P/FCF | 2.12 | 1.83 | 0.43 | 4.89 | 1.80 |
| P/FFO | 2.27 | 1.80 | 0.59 | 5.51 | 1.83 |
| P/TBV | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| P/AFFO | 1.80 | 1.60 | 0.63 | 3.37 | 1.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.48 | 0.58 | 0.07 | 1.03 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates HPP's fair value at $17.28 vs the current price of $9.31, implying +85.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.15 (P10) to $20.46 (P90), with a median of $16.49.
HPP's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -102.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 493.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover HPP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.71 (range: $7.50 — $26.00), implying +36.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HPP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.