MODEL VERDICT
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $43.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $44.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $44.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $43.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $42.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $28.05 | -36.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $41.60 | -5.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $29.10 | -33.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $14.14 | -67.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $23.14 | -47.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $1.71 | -96.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $30.57 | -30.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $43.51 | -0.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $28.73 | -34.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $14.14 | -67.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.53 | +1.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $42 | $47 | $52 | $58 |
| Base Case (0.1%) | $35 | $40 | $45 | $50 | $55 |
| Bull Case (0%) | $35 | $40 | $45 | $50 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.36 | 27.05 | 13.42 | 64.75 | 17.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.08 | 22.42 | 12.68 | 34.35 | 7.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.29 | 17.09 | 9.38 | 23.98 | 5.14 |
| P/FCF | 60.20 | 32.53 | 22.99 | 145.73 | 51.26 |
| P/FFO | 17.50 | 18.44 | 7.82 | 33.17 | 8.63 |
| P/TBV | 334.05 | 60.27 | 18.40 | 1481.56 | 642.05 |
| P/AFFO | 56.22 | 41.30 | 26.01 | 126.70 | 39.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.64 | 15.26 | 3.44 | 48.26 | 18.02 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.50 | 2.93 | 0.93 | 3.37 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LW's fair value at $44.53 vs the current price of $43.86, implying +1.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.10 (P10) to $55.68 (P90), with a median of $44.90.
LW's current P/E of 17.5x compares to the industry median of 11.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +50.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover LW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.60 (range: $46.00 — $55.00), implying +13.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13890.0% to approximately $105. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.