MODEL VERDICT
Loma Negra Compañía Industrial Argentina Sociedad Anónima (LOMA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $10.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $15027.36 | +141533.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $17419.99 | +164084.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $179465.45 | +1691374.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $13076.99 | +123151.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $17145.43 | +161496.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $11193.81 | +105402.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $2758998.22 | +26003653.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $30527.91 | +287627.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $29679.83 | +279634.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $174341.79 | +1643083.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $13080.59 | +123185.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $174359.96 | +1643255.0% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (69%) | $44551 | $44551 | $44551 | $44551 | $66826 |
| Conservative (112%) | $55919 | $55919 | $55919 | $55919 | $83879 |
| Base Case (172.5%) | $71833 | $71833 | $71833 | $71833 | $107749 |
| Bull Case (233%) | $87754 | $87754 | $87754 | $87754 | $131632 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.74 | 0.56 | 0.06 | 1.83 | 0.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.64 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 1.55 | 0.56 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/FFO | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/AFFO | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 137.67 | 184.40 | 0.05 | 228.55 | 121.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates LOMA's fair value at $174359.96 vs the current price of $10.61, implying +1643255.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $174359.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24544.59 (P10) to $34976.33 (P90), with a median of $29553.58.
LOMA's current P/E of 2.2x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -91.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover LOMA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.10 (range: $8.10 — $8.10), implying -23.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: LOMA trades at the 710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LOMA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (23.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1750370.0% to approximately $1868. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.