MODEL VERDICT
Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $8.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $9.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $7.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $10.23 | +17.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $23.56 | +169.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $27.05 | +209.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $19.70 | +125.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $17.16 | +96.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $20.60 | +135.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.45 | +225.5% | 100% | 45 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 69.24 | 70.23 | 51.12 | 86.39 | 17.66 |
| P/FCF | 62.30 | 57.58 | 16.23 | 117.81 | 42.22 |
| P/FFO | 65.88 | 67.90 | 57.97 | 71.75 | 7.11 |
| P/TBV | 12.15 | 12.36 | 3.37 | 20.49 | 8.22 |
| P/AFFO | 116.52 | 89.88 | 75.17 | 184.51 | 59.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.57 | 1.62 | 0.71 | 2.34 | 0.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.51 | 12.39 | 4.48 | 16.77 | 5.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MBLY's fair value at $28.45 vs the current price of $8.74, implying +225.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.35 (P10) to $26.07 (P90), with a median of $20.56.
MBLY's current P/E of -18.2x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -156.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover MBLY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.44 (range: $8.00 — $28.00), implying +65.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MBLY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.