MODEL VERDICT
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $23.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $21.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $30.60 | +34.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $22.23 | -2.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $26.92 | +18.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $26.55 | +16.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $36.81 | +61.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $27.98 | +23.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $25.72 | +13.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.91 | +35.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $16 | $20 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $17 | $21 | $26 | $30 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $22 | $26 | $31 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.91 | 17.90 | 11.03 | 18.81 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.33 | 19.41 | 14.86 | 23.64 | 4.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.61 | 16.63 | 9.03 | 32.03 | 8.92 |
| P/FCF | 15.68 | 8.23 | 5.92 | 52.86 | 18.33 |
| P/FFO | 12.14 | 12.26 | 9.74 | 14.42 | 2.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.56 | 0.90 | 2.81 | 0.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.95 | 0.38 | 1.32 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates MD's fair value at $30.91 vs the current price of $22.75, implying +35.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.50 (P10) to $35.34 (P90), with a median of $30.81.
MD's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -15.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
33 analysts cover MD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.25 (range: $19.00 — $27.00), implying -2.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.