MODEL VERDICT
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $5.42 | Pending | +0.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $17.19 | +216.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $13.06 | +140.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $3.82 | -29.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $13.98 | +157.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $10.31 | +89.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.45 | +110.5% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.97 | 22.78 | 7.43 | 26.90 | 8.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.13 | 24.37 | 16.79 | 158.82 | 55.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.98 | 18.11 | 12.49 | 92.28 | 28.90 |
| P/FCF | 11.79 | 11.34 | 5.81 | 18.69 | 5.46 |
| P/FFO | 24.52 | 16.68 | 5.34 | 49.27 | 18.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 0.80 | 0.39 | 1.95 | 0.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 0.78 | 0.39 | 1.65 | 0.52 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.98 | 4.32 | 2.38 | 10.39 | 3.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MPW's fair value at $11.45 vs the current price of $5.44, implying +110.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.90 (P10) to $14.01 (P90), with a median of $9.41.
MPW's current P/E of -16.5x compares to the industry median of 39.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -141.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover MPW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying -8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MPW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.