MODEL VERDICT
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. (SBRA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $20.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $19.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $20.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $19.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $19.28 | Below threshold | -1.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $20.35 | -1.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $20.89 | +1.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $17.90 | -12.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $23.40 | +13.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $21.18 | +3.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $18.95 | -7.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.18 | +3.0% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 89.28 | 44.87 | 25.93 | 241.46 | 102.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 59.83 | 26.64 | 18.63 | 184.50 | 70.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.73 | 14.15 | 9.10 | 17.09 | 2.46 |
| P/FCF | 11.57 | 11.05 | 9.09 | 14.44 | 2.10 |
| P/FFO | 20.41 | 16.06 | 11.42 | 45.12 | 11.87 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 1.68 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 1.64 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.54 | 5.81 | 4.59 | 6.01 | 0.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBRA's fair value at $21.18 vs the current price of $20.55, implying +3.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.06 (P10) to $31.74 (P90), with a median of $22.81.
SBRA's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 39.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 89.3x over 4 years. Signal: N/A.
29 analysts cover SBRA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.33 (range: $21.00 — $22.00), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SBRA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.