MODEL VERDICT
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $435.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $438.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $441.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $440.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $433.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $414.44 | -4.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $455.00 | +4.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $649.50 | +49.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $361.56 | -17.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $592.96 | +36.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $300.82 | -31.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $399.32 | -8.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $254.14 | -41.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $280.24 | -35.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $643.85 | +47.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $522.14 | +19.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $463.66 | +6.4% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $383 | $425 | $466 | $507 | $548 |
| Conservative (12%) | $400 | $443 | $486 | $529 | $571 |
| Base Case (18.5%) | $423 | $468 | $514 | $559 | $604 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $446 | $494 | $542 | $590 | $638 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.13 | 32.50 | 30.06 | 50.08 | 7.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.77 | 26.69 | 24.20 | 36.79 | 4.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.17 | 22.16 | 16.73 | 27.58 | 3.56 |
| P/FCF | 27.04 | 28.27 | 17.97 | 37.00 | 6.27 |
| P/FFO | 27.04 | 25.12 | 21.80 | 41.27 | 6.62 |
| P/AFFO | 31.52 | 28.64 | 25.95 | 47.67 | 7.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 120.93 | 59.42 | 26.69 | 338.17 | 146.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.21 | 5.40 | 3.59 | 7.30 | 1.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MSI's fair value at $463.66 vs the current price of $435.90, implying +6.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $463.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $360.74 (P10) to $541.62 (P90), with a median of $446.35.
MSI's current P/E of 34.2x compares to the industry median of 50.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -32.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover MSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $481.25 (range: $450.00 — $506.00), implying +10.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (6), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 18.4% is 3.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (14.9%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$361. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1710.0% to approximately $361. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.