MODEL VERDICT
MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $77.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $60.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $22.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $20.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $88.69 | +14.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $7.54 | -90.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $6.24 | -91.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $71.82 | -6.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $71.57 | -7.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $5.46 | -92.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.40 | -42.5% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 32.09 | 38.45 | 10.54 | 40.93 | 14.51 |
| P/FCF | 83.62 | 46.13 | 7.90 | 214.96 | 85.34 |
| P/FFO | 31.80 | 33.92 | 13.94 | 47.53 | 16.90 |
| P/TBV | 49.37 | 11.59 | 6.53 | 200.30 | 84.47 |
| P/AFFO | 44.89 | 40.24 | 19.00 | 75.45 | 28.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.21 | 3.63 | 2.80 | 12.28 | 3.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.34 | 4.59 | 2.45 | 6.73 | 1.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MXL's fair value at $44.40 vs the current price of $77.18, implying -42.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.26 (P10) to $107.35 (P90), with a median of $79.06.
MXL's current P/E of -48.8x compares to the industry median of 50.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -196.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover MXL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.71 (range: $30.00 — $75.00), implying -31.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MXL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.