MODEL VERDICT
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $43.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $42.19 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $41.83 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $42.03 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $40.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $37.08 | -15.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $45.61 | +4.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $44.43 | +1.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $41.36 | -5.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $37.00 | -15.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $39.80 | -9.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.41 | -3.0% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $39 | $44 | $50 | $56 |
| Conservative (7%) | $33 | $39 | $46 | $52 | $58 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $34 | $41 | $47 | $53 | $60 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $42 | $49 | $55 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.79 | 13.81 | 10.00 | 19.30 | 2.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.95 | 9.34 | 3.98 | 19.01 | 5.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.58 | 8.22 | 3.52 | 15.96 | 4.27 |
| P/FCF | 13.93 | 10.92 | 6.80 | 33.61 | 9.96 |
| P/FFO | 11.58 | 11.57 | 8.54 | 15.67 | 2.25 |
| P/TBV | 1.69 | 1.73 | 1.41 | 1.92 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 13.67 | 13.38 | 10.32 | 18.26 | 2.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 1.62 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.22 | 2.88 | 2.49 | 4.46 | 0.75 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NBHC's fair value at $42.41 vs the current price of $43.74, implying -3.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.97 (P10) to $44.71 (P90), with a median of $42.28.
NBHC's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 13.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +18.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
10 analysts cover NBHC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $52.00 (range: $52.00 — $52.00), implying +18.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NBHC trades at the 6930th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NBHC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1270.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.