MODEL VERDICT
New Providence Acquisition Corp. III (NPAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $10.31 | CURRENT | +0.1% |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.30 | Below threshold | +0.1% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.32 | Below threshold | -0.3% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $10.34 | Below threshold | -0.4% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $10.28 | Below threshold | +0.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $0.00 | -100.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $0.00 | -100.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $0.00 | -100.0% | 100% | 33 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates NPAC's fair value at $0.00 vs the current price of $10.31, implying -100.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 33/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $0.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
NPAC's current P/E of -302.3x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -1210.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for NPAC.
The model confidence score is 33/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (20), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NPAC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.