MODEL VERDICT
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $38.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $39.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $41.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $41.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $53.51 | Below threshold | -22.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $28.61 | -25.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $13.56 | -64.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $14.86 | -61.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $38.26 | -0.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $7.51 | -80.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $38.69 | +1.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $26.83 | -29.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $25.36 | -33.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $15.13 | -60.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $39.70 | +3.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.05 | +12.5% | 100% | 79 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 49× | 54× | 59× (Current) | 64× | 69× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $33 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $34 | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $36 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 102.46 | 39.39 | 20.26 | 310.78 | 139.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.23 | 4.75 | 3.63 | 6.97 | 1.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates NTNX's fair value at $43.05 vs the current price of $38.28, implying +12.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.98 (P10) to $72.85 (P90), with a median of $39.48.
NTNX's current P/E of 58.9x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +157.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.55 (range: $50.00 — $90.00), implying +58.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NTNX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.