MODEL VERDICT
Owens Corning (OC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $122.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $125.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $122.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $116.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $114.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $206.04 | +67.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $219.33 | +78.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $336.80 | +174.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $323.45 | +163.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $286.90 | +133.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $331.18 | +169.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $372.22 | +203.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $336.79 | +174.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $212.50 | +73.1% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.66 | 11.28 | 6.72 | 23.14 | 6.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.72 | 8.94 | 6.56 | 17.95 | 4.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.72 | 6.49 | 4.58 | 7.98 | 1.18 |
| P/FCF | 10.02 | 9.94 | 6.34 | 12.15 | 2.07 |
| P/FFO | 36.02 | 8.41 | 4.85 | 111.18 | 48.17 |
| P/TBV | 5.98 | 5.89 | 5.09 | 7.04 | 0.77 |
| P/AFFO | 13.77 | 11.54 | 6.56 | 24.07 | 7.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.22 | 2.18 | 1.53 | 2.92 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.11 | 0.85 | 1.39 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates OC's fair value at $212.50 vs the current price of $122.73, implying +73.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $212.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $194.11 (P10) to $243.43 (P90), with a median of $218.21.
OC's current P/E of -19.6x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -181.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover OC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $141.20 (range: $130.00 — $160.00), implying +15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (26), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.