MODEL VERDICT
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $9.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $9.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $8.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $2.14 | -78.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $14.30 | +43.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $27.77 | +178.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $2.14 | -78.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $10.20 | +2.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.07 | +11.0% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 69× | 76× | 83× (Current) | 90× | 97× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 125.42 | 124.50 | 116.30 | 135.45 | 9.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 172.68 | 27.38 | 24.57 | 611.39 | 292.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.65 | 16.15 | 13.40 | 24.89 | 5.21 |
| P/FCF | 24.07 | 11.09 | 6.93 | 85.37 | 30.55 |
| P/FFO | 23.24 | 20.41 | 18.38 | 33.78 | 7.13 |
| P/AFFO | 28.44 | 24.61 | 23.98 | 40.55 | 8.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.35 | 0.83 | 2.24 | 0.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.25 | 3.79 | 1.57 | 7.33 | 2.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates OWL's fair value at $11.07 vs the current price of $9.98, implying +11.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.51 (P10) to $16.20 (P90), with a median of $12.26.
OWL's current P/E of 83.2x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +366.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 125.4x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover OWL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.78 (range: $10.00 — $27.00), implying +58.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OWL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.