MODEL VERDICT
PG&E Corporation (PCG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $18.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $28.49 | +73.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $28.39 | +72.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 13 industry peers | $3.54 | -78.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 14 analyst estimates | $31.05 | +88.8% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $18.90 | +14.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $32.71 | +98.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $28.49 | +73.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.92 | +45.4% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $15 | $17 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $15 | $18 | $20 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.92 | 17.36 | 13.62 | 19.36 | 2.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.24 | 28.37 | 18.78 | 181.71 | 63.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.70 | 11.15 | 1.68 | 12.47 | 3.67 |
| P/FFO | 5.77 | 5.98 | 4.60 | 6.29 | 0.61 |
| P/TBV | 1.21 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 1.52 | 0.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 1.52 | 0.29 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.25 | 1.42 | 0.34 | 1.77 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCG's fair value at $23.92 vs the current price of $16.45, implying +45.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.20 (P10) to $30.28 (P90), with a median of $23.44.
PCG's current P/E of 13.9x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -42.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover PCG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.00 (range: $21.00 — $25.00), implying +39.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PCG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.