MODEL VERDICT
PDF Solutions, Inc. (PDFS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $33.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $32.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $33.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $30.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $31.56 | Below threshold | -2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $22.65 | -32.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $7.11 | -79.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $2.62 | -92.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $20.38 | -39.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $17.51 | -48.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $2.75 | -91.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.06 | -40.6% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 284× | 311× | 338× (Current) | 365× | 392× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 240.13 | 241.79 | 225.46 | 253.13 | 13.91 |
| P/FCF | 1328.31 | 225.35 | 39.00 | 6213.77 | 2436.52 |
| P/FFO | 219.47 | 219.31 | 123.22 | 316.03 | 105.39 |
| P/TBV | 4.53 | 4.83 | 1.41 | 6.41 | 1.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.93 | 4.30 | 1.36 | 5.47 | 1.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.03 | 7.16 | 3.16 | 10.63 | 2.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PDFS's fair value at $20.06 vs the current price of $33.78, implying -40.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.97 (P10) to $28.93 (P90), with a median of $21.38.
PDFS's current P/E of 337.8x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +1190.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
5 analysts cover PDFS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $38.00 — $38.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PDFS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.