MODEL VERDICT
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMTU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $25.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.48 | Pending | +1.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $97.59 | +280.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $48.98 | +91.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $43.29 | +68.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $38.09 | +48.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $51.95 | +102.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $76.96 | +200.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.04 | +122.5% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 |
| Base Case (-10.8%) | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates PMTU's fair value at $57.04 vs the current price of $25.64, implying +122.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.30 (P10) to $86.75 (P90), with a median of $61.83.
PMTU's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -32.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for PMTU.
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PMTU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2990.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.