MODEL VERDICT
Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $36.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $36.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $33.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $33.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $122.70 | +236.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $46.95 | +28.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $40.86 | +12.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $32.59 | -10.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $30.10 | -17.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $139.50 | +282.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $13.85 | -62.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $118.17 | +224.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $78.03 | +114.1% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $58 | $58 | $58 | $86 | $115 |
| Conservative (21%) | $62 | $62 | $62 | $92 | $123 |
| Base Case (32.4%) | $67 | $67 | $67 | $101 | $135 |
| Bull Case (44%) | $73 | $73 | $73 | $110 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.06 | 14.11 | 2.96 | 28.90 | 7.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.72 | 15.71 | 6.42 | 20.15 | 4.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.80 | 7.76 | 6.39 | 9.29 | 1.17 |
| P/FCF | 13.43 | 12.08 | 10.92 | 17.29 | 3.39 |
| P/FFO | 4.72 | 5.49 | 1.73 | 7.17 | 1.91 |
| P/AFFO | 11.30 | 9.82 | 5.72 | 19.83 | 6.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 2.35 | 0.84 | 2.71 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.54 | 0.80 | 2.19 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RCI's fair value at $78.03 vs the current price of $36.44, implying +114.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $78.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.51 (P10) to $95.85 (P90), with a median of $73.65.
RCI's current P/E of 3.9x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -59.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover RCI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $37.00 — $37.00), implying +1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 33.7% is 20.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (13.6%), with a Z-score of +2.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$72. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.3σ, meaning margins are 2.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9760.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.