MODEL VERDICT
Sunrun Inc. (RUN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $13.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $12.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.28 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $7.21 | -44.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $40.89 | +213.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $23.83 | +82.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $40.14 | +207.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.59 | +65.3% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $11 | $14 | $18 | $21 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $11 | $15 | $18 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $11 | $15 | $19 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FFO | 44.63 | 15.61 | 8.01 | 139.27 | 63.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.58 | 1.35 | 0.49 | 3.24 | 0.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.49 | 1.57 | 0.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 1.99 | 1.01 | 10.50 | 3.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates RUN's fair value at $21.59 vs the current price of $13.06, implying +65.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.98 (P10) to $25.71 (P90), with a median of $21.29.
RUN's current P/E of 7.6x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -68.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover RUN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.14 (range: $12.00 — $23.00), implying +38.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RUN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.